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NFL Wild Card Game Preview, Odds & Picks: Browns vs. Texans (Saturday)

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The NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend kicks off with a matchup that I’m sure not many people saw coming way back when the season started.

The hosting Houston Texans executed an incredible turnaround in 2023, going from 3-13-1 last season to winning 10 games and the AFC South with a rookie head coach and quarterback.

On the flip side, you could argue the Cleveland Browns overcame even more to win 11 games and clinch the 5th seed in the AFC. Just making the playoffs alone amidst the Deshaun Watson saga warrants some Coach of the Year votes. The Browns got here on the heels of arguably the league’s best defense, as well as a renaissance from veteran Joe Flacco, who was sitting on the couch before he signed with the Browns in late November.

And let’s not forget that these two teams squared off on Christmas Eve in Houston, a game the Browns dominated.

One of these surprise stories will reach the Divisional Round. The question is: which one? And how can we attack this playoff opener from a betting perspective? Here’s a breakdown of the Browns versus Texans game.

NFL Wild Card Playoff Betting Preview

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans O/U: 44.5

Why the rematch should be a different story 

Just a few weeks ago, the Browns went to Houston and blew out the Texans, 36-22. Cleveland out-gained Houston in yardage by 418 to 250, averaged nearly two more yards per play, and Amari Cooper put up an incredible game with 265 yards and two touchdowns.

But there’s one big caveat when looking back at the first meeting between these teams: C.J. Stroud didn’t play.

Instead, it was the pedestrian (and that’s putting it lightly) Davis Mills, who threw two interceptions and averaged a paltry 3.4 yards per pass attempt.

While it might be an overreaction to completely throw out the first meeting, the difference between Mills and Stroud can’t be underestimated. Stroud is the front-runner to win Rookie of the Year, and he’s been sensational at NRG Stadium. Stroud has averaged 9.52 adjusted net yards per pass attempt and has a 17:4 TD-to-INT ratio at home.

It’s tough to count on a rookie QB making his first career start in the postseason, especially against this Browns defense, but at least Stroud should benefit from the comforts of home. If nothing else, Stroud’s presence certainly makes the Christmas Eve result a bit less relevant.

How can Houston better defend Amari Cooper? 

One thing we can’t ignore from the first showdown was Cooper’s performance. Flacco fed Cooper early and often, and the Texans secondary simply couldn’t contain him. On top of 11 receptions, Cooper had receptions of 53 and 75 yards in the game.

The key in this game could come down to how the Texans decide to allocate resources in coverage against Cooper. We could see head coach DeMeco Ryans shade coverage to Cooper’s side of the field, offering safety help over the top to prevent big plays.

That’s not a bad strategy against a Browns offense that’s thin on pass catchers outside of Cooper and ranked 28th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt. Tight end David Njoku was Flacco’s second-most popular target, and he caught six balls and a touchdown against the Texans the first time out. A Houston defense that allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends and the fourth-most yards could have its hands full trying to contain both Cooper and Njoku.

Houston’s best path to slowing down this Browns offense will likely be in containing the run, an area the Texans ranked third in EPA (best among playoff teams), as well as generating pressure on a statuesque Flacco. The Texans ranked fifth in pressure rate, and third in quarterback knockdown percentage. In the first meeting, Houston recorded eight QB hits and recorded a single sack on Flacco. If Houston can get home more often and put Flacco in long down-and-distances, it could tilt the tide in this game.

Can Stroud beat this Browns defense?

If you asked me to pick the team with the better aerial attack in this game, it would be Houston by a hair. Stroud has been outstanding in his rookie year, and his arrival has prompted Nico Collins’ emergence. The loss of dynamic downfield threat Tank Dell to a season-ending injury took some wind out of this passing game’s sails, but the group is supplemented with dependable veteran pass catchers like Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods. All in all, Houston finished the year sixth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Houston’s offense typically rides and dies with Stroud and the passing game, as the running game has struggled to find its footing for much of the year and ranks just 26th in EPA.

But Stroud and the Texans will have their hands full with a Cleveland defense that ranks second in EPA and second in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed. First-year defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has extracted the full potential of this talented unit.

For as good as Cleveland’s defense has been, it’s also been a polarizing unit. For instance, Cleveland ranks 1st in third-down defense, but dead-last in red zone defense, although it’s worth noting that Cleveland allowed the fewest red zone trips in the league this year. But teams that can sustain drives deep inside Cleveland’s territory have often come out with seven points.

A Houston offense that ranks middle-of-the-road in both third-down and red zone conversions could struggle with consistently moving the chains.

Injury Report 

Here’s a look at injury reports for both teams as of Wednesday.

Prediction & Best Bet 

We’re at the point of the NFL betting season where lines are sharper than ever, and this game is evidence of that. But ultimately, I’m willing to trust the more experienced coach and quarterback and the better defense, even on the road.

I think resting a banged-up defense in Week 18 will do wonders for a unit that seemed to be running out of gas toward season’s end. And while I think the Texans will have a better gameplan for limiting Cooper, I don’t fully trust Houston’s secondary to contain both Cooper and Njoku.

In fact, I think the Texans are a bit fortunate to be in this spot, as they were a missed Gardner Minshew throw away from potentially finishing in the wild card or outside of the postseason entirely. C.J. Stroud’s time is coming, but I don’t think he gets past the Browns. I’ll take Cleveland at -2.5 or better, but wouldn’t play this at -3 or higher. 

From a prop perspective, I like David Njoku to go over 54.5 receiving yards. As I mentioned, the Texans have surrendered 60 yards per game to opposing tight ends this year. Njoku has gone over this prop in seven games this year, and has done so in three of five of Flacco’s starts.

I also like Jerome Ford to go over 16.5 receiving yards. Houston has allowed 34.6 receiving yards to opposing tailbacks, and Ford has cleared this number in nine games, as well as three of Flacco’s five games under center.

The picks: Browns -2.5, David Njoku over 54.5 receiving yards, Jerome Ford over 16.5 receiving yards

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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