NFL Wild Card Game Preview, Odds & Picks: Dolphins vs. Chiefs (Saturday)
The NFL will have it's first ever exclusively streamed playoff game when the Dolphins travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. It'll be a far cry from the weather of South Beach this time of year for Miami. The current forecast calls for highs in the single digits and could be down below 0°F. How will this affect the high-flying offense of the Dolphins? Let's take a look at the matchup for what is sure to be one of the best games of the weekend.
Wild Card Game Preview: Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.)
The loss of Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City offense made its mark on the 2023 Chiefs. They still had an above-league-average offense, but only ranked 8th in DVOA. Conversely, adding Hill to the Miami offense this year has unlocked another level of this offense, catapulting them to 2nd in DVOA offense, just behind the 49ers.
Miami averaged 29.2 points per game this season, but in the last three weeks of the year, correlating with the injury to Raheem Mostert, they've managed just 18.3 points per game. Mostert is questionable for this Saturday’s matchup and his status will be key. In these cold-temperature games, the running game becomes incredibly important. Rookie De’Von Achane has had a fantastic season, but with injury concerns of his own, he may not be able to carry the load if Mostert is out.
Kansas City's pass defense has been one of the best in the league. They ranked 5th in DVOA for pass defense. In their matchup early in the season, the Chiefs contained the Miami pass attack, limiting Tua Tagovailoa to just 194 yards on 34 attempts. So regardless of whether the weather was going to dictate it, Miami will try to move the ball on the ground.
This is not the same Chiefs team that we've grown accustomed to during the Patrick Mahomes era. They've relied more on their defense than they have in a while. The strong pass defense should help slow down the Dolphin pass offense, but the frigid weather should be doing that regardless. The key is a healthy Miami run game. If Mostert and Achane are healthy and ready to go, Miami could have the advantage in this highly anticipated game.
Pick: Dolphins +4.5 (-110)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Wild Card Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz's Favorites
- NFL Wild Card Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
- NFL Wild Card Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Sunday)
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts