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NFL Wild Card Game Preview, Odds & Picks: Rams vs. Lions (Sunday)

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The NFL is sometimes the world’s greatest soap opera.

Nearly two years to the day of the franchise-altering trade that sent Matthew Stafford to Los Angeles and Jared Goff to Detroit, the two teams will square off in a Wild Card Round clash.

It’s rare for a trade of this magnitude to work out well for both sides, but it very clearly has: The Rams won the Super Bowl in 2021, and after a crash-and-burn 2022 season are back in the postseason for the second time in three years. Detroit hasn’t had championship-level success under Goff yet. However, Lions fans will gladly take the team’s first NFC North title in franchise history and their team’s first home playoff game since 1994.

But the narratives end once the ball is kicked off. The question is whether Stafford’s Rams have enough to go into Detroit and knock off the upstart Lions. Let’s break down this Sunday night Wild Card Round matchup.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3), O/U: 51.5

Can the Rams rise up against stiffer competition?

The Rams deserve a ton of credit for making the playoffs after 2022’s calamity. The Rams improved their roster depth and benefitted from better health out of their star players. This has been one of Sean McVay’s better coaching jobs, and the emergence of second-year fifth-round pick Kyren Williams and rookie fifth-round pick Puka Nacua has injected new life into a veteran-laden offense.

That all being said, this Rams team still has some flaws. This is a thin defense outside of Aaron Donald, one that struggled mightily to generate pressure. The Rams ranked 28th in pressure rate and were middle of the pack in terms of blitz rate. The best way to throw off this Lions offense is to keep Jared Goff under duress, but that could be a tall task for the Rams against a stellar Lions offensive line that had the fourth-lowest sack rate in the NFL.

Los Angeles’ inability to rush the passer can leave an inexperienced secondary exposed, which explains why Los Angeles ranks 21st in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed. Los Angeles also ranked second-worst in average depth of target defensively, which means they’re fully capable of giving up big plays downfield to the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and this Lions receiving corps.

Los Angeles’ body of work also raises some questions. Just take a look at their wins this season:

  • Seattle (twice)
  • Indianapolis (in overtime)
  • Arizona (twice)
  • Cleveland (in Joe Flacco’s first start with the Browns)
  • Commanders
  • Saints
  • Giants
  • 49ers (in a game where San Francisco sat their starters)

The Rams deserve full credit for beating the teams they were supposed to. However, they went 1-6 against teams that made the playoffs this season.

The X-factor for Los Angeles will be Cooper Kupp, who simply hasn’t consistently looked himself this season after dealing with a hamstring injury to start the year. If Kupp can return to form, this could open up things significantly for Stafford and the entire offense. Although Los Angeles could be in for a tough matchup on that side of the ball as well.

Why Detroit’s defense matches up well with the Rams offense

I’m not going to endorse the Lions defense as a top unit in the league. In fact, I laughed when I saw reports that defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn was being requested for head coaching interviews.

This unit ranks 24th in EPA and has had serious struggles in the secondary, ranking 24th in adjusted net yards allowed per pass attempt. However, there are two things this defense does really well, and they are both important factors when it comes to stopping McVay’s offense.

First off, Detroit ranks ninth in EPA run defense and has allowed the third-fewest yards per carry in the league. For as much acclaim as Nacua has received, you could argue the Rams offense runs more through Williams. L.A. ranks 12th in rush attempts and eighth in rushing EPA, as McVay relies heavily on the ground game to set up play action with frequent pre-snap motion.

The Lions are equipped upfront to limit Williams on the ground, which could get Stafford in trouble in obvious passing downs. And that leads me to the other strength of this Lions defense…

Detroit led the league in pressure rate during the regular season, generating pressure on 28.2% of their opponents dropbacks this season. They also led the league with a quarterback knockdown percentage of 12.2%. While that didn’t always translate into sacks - Detroit ranked just 24th in sacks - generating consistent pressure is this unit’s identity.

Pressure is paramount to slowing down Stafford, as his statistics drop off significantly when under duress. But Detroit’s front will have its work cut out for it against a Rams offensive line that allowed only the seventh-fewest sacks in the league. Whoever wins the trenches on this side of the ball could very well win the game.

Prediction & Best Bet

The Rams come into this game feeling like a very popular public dog, and I believe the narrative of the Stafford revenge game has fueled initial action on Los Angeles.

But as I outlined above, I’m not sure this Rams team is capable of pulling off this upset on the road. And while fading McVay as an underdog is a scary proposition, I think this matchup favors the Lions more. The key will be pressure, as I expect Stafford to be under duress more often, while Goff is able to operate against a weak secondary from a cleaner pocket.

For all these reasons, I’m willing to lay the points with the Lions, so long as it stays at -3 or better. 

From a prop perspective, I’m interested in taking Kyren Williams going under 80.5 rushing yards, although this number does worry me. Williams hasn’t rushed for fewer than 81 yards since October, which has me hoping for a slightly better number.

I also am interested in taking a shot on an ancillary weapon in Detroit’s passing game to have a big game with tight end Sam LaPorta likely out. The obvious player to back is Amon-Ra St. Brown, but at 88.5 receiving yards that prop is a little high for my liking. Instead, I’ll take a stab on Josh Reynolds going over 29.5 receiving yards and/or over 2.5 receptions.

Reynolds cleared this mark in each of Detroit’s first five games and in seven games overall. But his role receded as LaPorta emerged on the scene. I foresee Reynolds being Goff’s second option in the passing game behind St. Brown if LaPorta ends up being out.

The picks: Lions -3, Kyren Williams under 80.5 rushing yards, Josh Reynolds over 2.5 receptions and/or 29.5 receiving yards

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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