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NFL Wild Card Game Preview, Odds & Picks: Steelers vs. Bills (Monday)

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Wild Card Sunday kicks off with an AFC showdown that could wind up featuring three teams: the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Buffalo Bills, and Mother Nature’s Wrath.

Perhaps the biggest storyline entering Sunday’s game is, indeed, the weather. Sunday’s forecast calls for temperatures in the 20’s, with potentially 6-to-10 inches of snowfall during the day. Oh, and to top it off, let’s throw in sustained winds of 29 MPH with gusts up to 44 MPH.

With Buffalo as a sizable favorite, the question is whether the poor conditions benefit the traveling Steelers, who will already bring Mike Tomlin’s underdog mentality into this game. But while the Steelers will have a chip on their shoulder, they won’t have star T.J. Watt on their defensive line.

Let’s breakdown what could be a chaotic game in Buffalo.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-9.5), O/U: 35.5

Who does the weather favor? 

The Bills need an indoor stadium immediately, as it seems like weather has played a major role in several of their most critical games over the last few seasons. And if I’m a Bills fan, I’m nervous that the weather conditions could be the ultimate equalizer.

The weather could only help Pittsburgh do what they do best: ugly up games and hang around in them. High winds could take the passing games out of this game entirely, and I worry about Josh Allen and his turnover tendencies in these conditions.

That being said, the weather might be the only thing Pittsburgh has working in its favor in this game. And while the weather could keep help stymie the Buffalo offense, it won’t do them any favors in terms of getting points up on the board.

Can the Bills win with the ground game? 

Whether the weather dictates it or not, Buffalo would be wise to rely on their ground game. The Bills have taken a more balanced approach offensively after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and turning to Joe Brady as play caller. And that strategy has worked immensely, as Buffalo ranks 1st in rushing EPA.

Buffalo has also saved Josh Allen from himself by turning to its running game. While Allen has six interceptions and fumbles in Buffalo’s last two games, he’s protected the ball better since Brady took over.

More importantly, Buffalo should be able to run all over a Steelers defense that’s struggled against the run at times and could struggle even more without Watt on the field. Watt’s absence will obviously take the wind out of the sails of a defense that ranked 11th in pressure rate during the regular season. Watt also accounted for 19 of the team’s 47 sacks.

Does Mike Tomlin have more magic in him? 

At this point, I have to wonder if Mike Tomlin made a deal with the devil. His teams seemingly only get worse, yet he still finishes above .500 and this year made the playoffs with Mason Rudolph being his best quarterback.

Only Mike Tomlin is capable of pulling this off. And Tomlin’s teams have been terrific as road underdogs, posting a 39-27-2 mark ATS in this spot. However, Tomlin is only 7-8-2 ATS in the playoffs and actually hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season. His last two playoff losses in the Wild Card round have also come by double digits.

What does this indicate? Tomlin’s teams can ugly games up and found ways to win throughout the regular season. But ultimately, Pittsburgh’s lack of talent does them in against superior teams, and this year might be no different.

Mason Rudolph has done the bare minimum since taking over the starting quarterback job. But after what Pittsburgh got out of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, the bare minimum is just dandy. The Steelers have cracked 30 points in two of Rudolph’s starts, but those outbursts came against two lousy defenses in Cincinnati (27th in EPA) and Seattle (30th in EPA).

Buffalo’s defense in a potential blizzard will be an entirely different animal. The Bills rank 9th in EPA, eighth in pressure rate and fifth in adjusted net yards allowed per pass attempt. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 24th in EPA and 21st in adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Pittsburgh will need to succeed on the ground, where they rank 17th in EPA, and will face a Bills defense that’s been more vulnerable on the ground.

If Pittsburgh can gain chunk yardage on the ground and keep Rudolph in manageable third downs, they could have a shot at keeping this close.

And in a game with poor weather expected, special teams and field position will be paramount. The Bills hold the advantage in the punting department, but Pittsburgh has the slight edge at kicker.

Prediction & Best Bet 

When this line first came out, I pounced on the Bills at -9.5. My initial thinking was that Buffalo was the far superior team with a major advantage at QB facing a Steelers team without its best player in Watt.

All of that still holds true. And even in the best conditions, I don’t see how Pittsburgh puts up points unless Buffalo hands them points via turnovers. But the weather forecast throws a major wrench into this and favors a Steelers team that’s shown it can steal games if their opponent makes enough mistakes.

Sure, Josh Allen has been better at limiting mistakes. But if there’s any team that would stub its toe and struggle in these conditions, it’s a Bills team that’s immensely talented but goes through bizarre fits of stupidity.

This all being said, I’ll still recommend the Bills at -9.5 or better, but as a lean. I’m also fine with a play on the under assuming the weather is as bad as advertised. 

As for props, I really like James Cook going over 15.5 rushing attempts. He’s gone over this in only six games this season, but has carried the ball at least 16 times in five of his last seven outings. And I suspect the weather will result in a run-heavy game script.

The picks: Lean Bills -9.5, Lean under 35.5, James Cook over 15.5 rushing attempts

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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