NFL Wild Card Monday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Vikings vs. Rams)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Wild Card Weekend from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to this week's final postseason game on Monday Night Football. In this solo MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchup as we continue into the stretch of NFL regular season action. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay for Monday night between the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.
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Monday Night Primer
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
Sides:
- The favorites have won 24 of the Rams' last 28 games.
- The Rams have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
- The road team has covered the spread in 10 of the Rams' last 13 games.
- The Rams have won nine of their last 13 home games.
- The Rams have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 17 games.
- The Rams have won each of their last five road games.
- The Rams have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as road favorites.
- Since 2023, the Rams are 5-12 as underdogs straight up. This season, they are 4-6 as underdogs (5-5 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers (twice), Vikings, and Bills.
- The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.
- The Rams have scored last in nine of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
- The Vikings are 8-4-2 ATS as road favorites.
- The Vikings have won nine of their last 10 games.
- The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in 15 of their last 17 games.
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 23 games.
- They are 11-6 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
- The Vikings have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
- All but nine of the Vikings' last 31 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (74%).
- As home favorites, the Vikings are 14-4 on the Moneyline (78%) but just 9-10 ATS (45%).
- The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in seven of their last eight road games.
- The Vikings have dropped eight of their last 12 home games ATS as a favorite.
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight games as underdogs.
Totals:
- Eight of the Rams’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eleven of the Rams' last 22 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Rams' last nine games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
- Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or an injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023.
- Only eight times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
- They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7 and Saints in Week 13.
- Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football, but they yielded 382 yards of offense to the Patriots in Week 11 and over 480 yards in Week 12 to the Eagles.
- Against the Jets, they allowed nine points but over 320 yards.
- Six of the Rams’ last seven games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Vikings’ last 19 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eleven of the Vikings' last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Vikings are 9-8 toward the UNDER this season.
- They are 5-3 toward the under at home, averaging over 47 points per game.
- The Vikings are 5-11-1 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
- Seven of the Vikings’ last nine games against NFC North opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
I can't help but think that we are getting a lot of value backing the Minnesota Vikings against the spread after their disastrous Sunday night performance against the Lions. Sam Darnold was dreadful in that game.
He completed just 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards. It's the first time Darnold failed to record 231+ passing yards in his last 12 games.
The Vikings’ offense had many opportunities to score in the red zone but continued to fall short. They finished 0-4 on red-zone trips. Justin Jefferson had four red-zone targets but didn't score.
I don't think what the Vikings offense showed against the Lions in a massive divisional prime time game is reflective of what this team has been all year long: A team that finished the regular season 14-3. A team that always plays (and frequently wins) in close games.
I'm doing my best to wipe Sunday night's game from handicapping this matchup against the Rams. Sure, it represents the floor that Darnold sometimes brings. But he has had plenty of meltdowns this season and seemingly rebounded to help his Vikings win games.
Had the Vikings lost in a different fashion, this line spread would have been closer to Minnesota -3. That was the closing line when these teams first played back in Week 8.
And now, it's just a one-point spread because the Vikings played poorly against the best team in the NFC. Buy the dip. Because if the market was totally "out" on the Vikings, they wouldn't be favored against the Rams. After all, the Rams beat Minnesota at home in Week 8, 30-20.
But how good is this 10-7 Rams team? Especially as underdogs?
Since 2023, the Rams are 5-12 as underdogs straight up. The Vikings have won nine games in a row as favorites.
Favorites by the market and road teams prevail in Rams games. The favorites have won 24 of the Rams' last 28 games (86%). The road team has covered the spread in 10 of the Rams' last 13 games (77%).
The 2024 Rams win and cover as a favorite against inferior teams, especially when they get suppressed lines playing on the road. But this is hardly the case on Wild Card Weekend.
LA’s average margin of victory this season is less than six points. Two of their wins this season have been more than one score, which was by 10 points in both instances. They don’t blow teams out.
And let's not forget how bad this Rams offense has been in recent weeks, with all the dismay on the Vikings. They have scored fewer than 20 points in three straight games with Matthew Stafford at QB.
I fully expect Brian Flores to slow this Rams passing attack down.
Five of the last eight quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings have all exceeded their passing yards projection by an average of +92 passing yards.
The only ones who have failed to hit the passing yards markers? Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff in their rematches against the Vikings. Rams-Vikings is a rematch from Week 8.
Stafford is under 240.5 passing yards in four of his last five games.
I'll take the Vikings on the Moneyline.
As a final note on this game, be aware that it’s possible it’s moved to either Las Vegas or Phoenix because of the Southern California wildfires. The NFL is monitoring the situation. If the game was moved to a neutral site, I’d imagine it would move the line further in favor of the Vikings.
Props:
T.J. Hockenson had a quiet game, as did the entire Vikings offense in Week 18, catching only two passes for 9 yards on eight targets.
The Vikings TE has 14 targets over the last two weeks, hauling in 7 receptions for 77 yards.
He should rebound with a similar volume next week. All but two tight ends the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2. I like the MORE THAN on his 40.5 receiving yards in Week 19.
Hockenson has had a steady amount of targets/receptions since returning from his injury, but he still hasn't scored. Given the Rams' weaknesses against tight ends, this is as good a time as ever for the Hock to hit paydirt. I also love his odds for a first TD score at +1300.
In his last five games, Cooper Kupp has had more than three catches once, with 12 catches for 161 yards and just 1 TD over that span. 2.4 catches and 32.2 receiving yards per game.
Kupp went over 50 yards in the first matchup versus the Vikings, but it took 36 yards (including a 27-yard catch) on Matthew Stafford's last two pass attempts for him to hit the over. He was sitting on 15 receiving yards for almost the entire game back in Week 8.
TE Tyler Higbee contributed five catches for 46 yards and a touchdown (three red-zone targets) in Week 18. It's good to see the Rams TE healthy, and he should be in line for the TE1 role in the first round of the playoffs. It's still a rotation among the LA tight ends, but Higbee is clearly at the top. The Rams TE was targeted on 37% of his routes run.
In the first matchup versus the Rams, Jefferson was Darnold's go-to target, hauling in eight of nine targets for 115 yards. Jefferson has 6.5-plus receptions in five straight games before last week's dud (8/13 toward the over, 61% hit rate)
My Picks: