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NFL Wild Card Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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Super Wild Card Weekend is here, which means there will be six NFL playoff games across three days this weekend. With a mix of evenly matched games and mismatches, what long-shot bets provide the most value in the first round of the playoffs?

Here are the best long-shot bets for Super Wild Card Weekend.

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Best NFL Wild Card Longshot Bets

Matthew Stafford 350+ passing yards (+500)

The storyline entering Sunday night’s game between the Detroit Lions revolves around how Stafford will perform in the postseason against his old team. With all that hype, many bettors are overlooking the fact that the Los Angeles Rams were one of the better running teams in the league this season.

However, the Lions finished the year with the second-best run defense in the league, which means that if the Rams are going to move the ball this weekend, they’ll have to do it through the air. Luckily for the Rams, the Lions have the sixth-worst pass defense in football, allowing 247.4 yards per game.

The matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring back-and-forth affair. Because of that, Stafford will be throwing for all four quarters, especially as Kyren Williams struggles to find space in the rushing attack. Stafford didn’t throw for 350 yards once this season, but in the biggest moment of his year, he’ll do just that against a struggling secondary.

Houston Texans Under 11.5 points (+550)

In Week 16, the Houston Texans managed to score 22 points against the Cleveland Browns with Davis Mills as their quarterback. 15 of those points came in the fourth quarter. One would assume the Texans will have more success against the Browns with CJ Stroud under center, but in reality, this is going to be a tough game for the potential future Rookie of the Year.

Stroud has struggled against the best pass defenses he’s faced. Though he was injured in the game, he managed just 91 yards against the New York Jets, and he only threw for 140 against the Carolina Panthers. The Browns are the only defense in the NFL better against the pass than the Jets or Panthers.

Without Stroud finding ways to move the ball down the field, the Texans are going to struggle to put any points on the board. For the third time this season, the Texans will score less than 10 points in a game.

Aaron Jones 120+ rushing yards (+550)

Though Jones battled injuries all season, he’s been on fire over the past three weeks. He’s rushed for at least 111 yards in all three contests, including at least 120 in two of those games.

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the worst run defenses in the league. They only rank 16th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game because their offense has been so good that teams tend to have to throw against them.

The Packers will need to keep this game close if Jones is going to hit this number. But the way they’re going to keep it close is by giving the ball to Jones over and over again.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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