NFL Wild Card Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2024)

by Pat Fitzmaurice |
Jan 12, 2024

It's not just NFL Wild-Card Weekend. It's Super Wild-Card Weekend. If you leave out the "Super," you could be subject to a fine from NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell's office.

But seriously, having six games' worth of wagers beats having only four games on which to bet. It's not as hearty a menu as we get during the regular season, but there are still some delicious player-props options.

I'll get to this week's selections in a moment. But first, a recap of the Week 18 plays â€¦

The wins: Sam Howell under 215.5 passing yards, Tyler Huntley under 164.5 passing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs under 51.5 rushing yards

The losses: Justin Fields over 255.5 passing + rushing yards, George Pickens over 49.5 receiving yards, Dalton Schultz over 43.5 receiving yards, Mike Evans over 61.5 receiving yards

Last week: 3-4

Season record: 84-83

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Fitz's Favorite NFL Super Wild-Card Weekend Player Prop Bets

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.

Joe Flacco OVER 271.5 passing yards (-115)

How can we resist an opportunity to bet on Air Flacco? He's thrown for more than 300 yards in four of his five starts for the Browns, averaging 323.2 yards per start. Flacco has attempted more than 40 passes in four of those starts, and the Browns have thrown on 62.0% of their offensive snaps in games Flacco has started. He'll be facing a Houston defense that allowed the eighth-most passing yards during the regular season, yielding 7.7 yards per attempt. The Texans have given up the sixth-fewest rushing yards this season, so expect a pass-heavy gameplan for the Cleveland offense. When Flacco faced the Texans on Christmas Eve day, he blistered them for 368 passing yards and three touchdowns. Bet on another big game for Flacco.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 64.5 rushing yards (-115)

Let's start with the weather conditions for Dolphins-Chiefs on Saturday night. Winter is coming to Kansas City, where the game-time temperature is expected to hover around minus 5 degrees. That's running weather. Pacheco has averaged 16.2 carries and 79.3 rushing yards over his last six games, including a 16-carry, 66-yard performance against the Dolphins in Week 9. Miami has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards, but the Dolphinsâ€™ run defense ranks 16th in DVOA, suggesting that this is not an especially difficult matchup for Pacheco. The Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites, so they're likely to get a run-friendly game script. The Dolphins are likely to be force-fed a heaping helping of Pacheco on Saturday night.

Kyren Williams UNDER 82.5 rushing yards (-115)

We knew the rushing total for Williams was going to be set high. He's cleared this number in seven consecutive games, averaging 120.9 rushing yards over that span. So, why on earth would we play the under here? Well, it's all about the matchup. The Detroit run defense is downright nasty. My colleague Andrew Erickson likes this bet, too. As Erickson notes in his player props article for Super Wild-Card Weekend, the Lions haven't allowed a running back to go over 70 rushing yards all year. Detroit allowed a league-low 60.5 rushing yards per game to RBs during the regular season. Running backs have averaged 3.5 yards per carry against the Lions. Opponents averaged 24.0 rushing attempts per game against Detroit this season, the third-lowest total in the league. It's far easier to move the ball through the air against the Lions, and I expect the Rams to act accordingly with a pass-heavy game script in this matchup.

Najee Harris OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-115)

It's going to be difficult to throw the ball when the Steelers face the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon. Steelers QB Mason Rudolph and Bills QB Josh Allen will have to deal with winds expected to be in the 20-30 mph range. It's probably not in the Steelersâ€™ best interests to be pass-happy with Rudolph even in favorable weather conditions, and Sundayâ€™s conditions will certainly not be favorable. Needing to win their last three games to have a shot at making the playoffs, the Steelers went extremely run-heavy, with Harris spearheading the ground game. The rugged Harris has averaged 24.0 carries and 104.0 rushing yards over Pittsburgh's last three games. Expect Harris to get plenty of work Sunday against a Bills run defense that has given up 4.4 yards per carry to RBs this season.

David Njoku OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-120)

Njoku has averaged 93.3 receiving yards over his last four games, clearing this number in all but one game over that stretch. Over his last eight games, Njoku has averaged 9.8 targets, 6.1 receptions and 70.4 receiving yards. As mentioned above, the Browns have been extremely pass-heavy since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback in Week 13, with Flacco throwing more than 40 passes in four of his five starts. Njoku will be facing a Texans defense that has allowed 107 receptions to tight ends this season, tied for most in the league, and has given up 1,024 receiving yards to tight ends, fifth-most in the league. This is a smash spot for the red-hot Njoku.

Stefon Diggs UNDER 60.5 receiving yards (-115)

Gusty conditions Saturday in Buffalo could make it hard for the Steelers and Bills to conduct business through the air. The forecast calls for winds in the 20-30 mph range. It's not exactly a get-right spot for Diggs, who's been in a two-month slump. Over his last eight games, Diggs has averaged just 43.6 receiving yards, producing fewer than 50 receiving yards in six of those contests. Diggs figures to get a lot of facetime with Joey Porter Jr., Pittsburgh's outstanding rookie cornerback, who's allowing 0.70 yards per route run into his coverage. I really like the under here.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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