Navigate

NFL Wild Card Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

by |

The Texans host the Browns in the first game of the NFL’s postseason this year. They’re followed by the Dolphins facing the Chiefs in Kansas City in a frigid game. Both playoff games have eye-catching player props for constructing enticing same-game parlays (SGP).

Saturday NFL Doubleheader Best Same Game Parlay Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans SGP

  • Leg 1: Jerome Ford Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
  • Leg 2: Kareem Hunt Under 24.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
  • Leg 3: C.J. Stroud Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The Browns have unleashed a pass-happy offense since inserting Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Browns have had a 62% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 14. In addition, they had a 64% situation-neutral pass rate against the Texans in Week 16, even without the threat of C.J. Stroud putting up points on their stingy defense. Instead, Case Keenum was Houston’s starter while Stroud recovered from a concussion.

The pass-heavy approach is suboptimal for Jerome Ford’s and Kareem Hunt’s rushing potential. The matchup is also brutal. According to The 33rd Team, the Texans have held running backs to 92 rushing yards per game at a tiny 3.4 yards per carry since Week 15. It would be foolish for the Browns to run the inefficient duo of Ford and Hunt into Houston’s stout run defense.

Ford had just 25 rushing yards on 15 attempts in the first meeting against the Texans, and Hunt had just 11 on seven. Excluding Week 18’s meaningless game for the Browns, Ford was under 44.5 rushing yards in four of his past seven games, and Hunt was under 24.5 in two of his last three.

The Texans are underdogs, which could force them to air it out to keep up. In addition, from Week 14 through Week 17, Cleveland’s opponents had a 65% situation-neutral pass rate.

Stroud can make the most of a heavier passing workload in his home stadium. The rookie has thrived at home. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he averaged 310.8 passing yards per game at home in eight games. Stroud was held under 242.5 passing yards only twice at home. Finally, FantasyPros is projecting him to have 253.0 passing yards, comfortably over his line.

Parlay Odds: +490

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

  • Leg 1: Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-166)
  • Leg 2: Isiah Pacheco 100+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (+130)
  • Leg 3: Isiah Pacheco Over 3.5 Receptions (+110)

Tua Tagovailoa is in the middle of a late-season slump. The lefty has completed over one passing touchdown only once in his past five games and three times in his last nine. The frigid weather forecast for Kansas City on Saturday night is bad news for passing.

Additionally, the matchup is challenging for Tagovailoa. The Chiefs held Tua to 193 passing yards and one touchdown in Week 9. Furthermore, Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, Kirk Cousins and Zach Wilson were the only quarterbacks to pass for more than 1.5 touchdowns against the Chiefs.

On the other side of the game, Isiah Pacheco should be a workhorse for the Chiefs. When these teams played earlier this year, the Chiefs had a 46% situation-neutral rush rate, much higher than their 33% situation-neutral rush rate from Week 14 through Week 17. Moreover, Miami’s opponents have had a 44% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 15.

The second-year running back has had at least 20 touches in four of his past five games and bested 100 scrimmage yards in two of his final three games in the regular season. Pacheco has also had a steady role in the passing game lately, reeling in five, three, four and seven receptions in his last four games in the regular season.

The matchup isn’t too shabby for Pacheco, especially since injuries have ravaged Miami’s defense. Since Week 15, they’ve allowed running backs 64 rushing yards per game, 4.0 receptions per game and 32 receiving yards per game. The well-rested, hard-charging running back should pick up where he left off before getting a breather in Week 18.

Parlay Odds: +435

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App