NFL Wild Card Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Monday)

by Mike Fanelli |
Jan 14, 2024

Wild card weekend is underway, meaning we get three days of NFL playoff football. The weekend concludes with two matchups on Monday. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills kick off in the day's first contest. Then, the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to wrap up the slate.

Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look at my favorite touchdown bets for each game.

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Wild Card Weekend Monday Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills

Steelers First TD Scorer: Najee Harris (+310)

Mason Rudolph took over as the starting quarterback in Week 16. The Steelers haven't lost a game since making the quarterback change despite facing three teams with a winning record. However, the run game is why Pittsburgh is on a three-game win streak and made the playoffs. Harris has averaged 24 rushing attempts per game over the past three weeks, totaling 19 or more in every contest. Furthermore, he has four rushing touchdowns in those games, scoring at least once every week.

More importantly, the former Alabama star has scored the first Steelers' touchdown in 40% of the past 10 games, including this past week against the Baltimore Ravens. Harris led Pittsburgh in rushing touchdowns and offensive scores (eight) during the regular season, accounting for 27.6% of the team's total. Meanwhile, the first offensive touchdown scored against the Bills has been a rushing once in five consecutive contests. Expect the Steelers to lean on their 1-2 punch at running back in this game.

Bills First TD Scorer: Dawson Knox (+1200)

This pick is more of a gut call than a logical one. Knox has only two receiving touchdowns and never had the first score in a game for Buffalo. However, the veteran tight end has always been a reliable option for Josh Allen in the red zone and during the playoffs. He has five receiving touchdowns in eight career postseason games. Furthermore, Knox has had three receiving touchdowns in his past two wild card contests.

This past week, the veteran tight had a receiving touchdown in the win over the Miami Dolphins. Wide receiver Gabe Davis won't play in this game because of a knee injury, which will create more opportunities for Knox. Meanwhile, the Steelers surrendered seven receiving touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season, the fourth-most in the NFL. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against Pittsburgh has been by a tight end in seven of the past seven games, including by Isaiah Likely in Week 18.

Anytime TD Scorer: Josh Allen (-115)

The NFL moved the game between the Steelers and the Bills from Sunday afternoon to Monday evening because of the blizzard in Buffalo and the travel restrictions. While the weather on Monday won't be as dangerous to travel, it will still be far from ideal playing conditions to play football. It will feel like six degrees, with 14 MPH winds and snow showers for this game. Yet, the freezing weather will only improve Allen's chances of finding the end zone.

Despite all the talk from the Bills in the offseason about cutting back on the quarterback's rushing workload, Allen had 15 touchdowns during the regular season, ranking second in the NFL. He was the focal point of the team's red zone rushing attack, accounting for 68.2% of Buffalo's rushing touchdowns. Furthermore, Allen had at least one rushing touchdown in 70.6% of the games, including 10 of the past 12 and five consecutive before last week's matchup against the Miami Dolphins.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Eagles First TD Scorer: Jalen Hurts (+205)

This past week, Hurts didn't finish the blowout loss to the New York Giants after suffering a finger injury on his throwing hand. However, the star quarterback is off the injury report and will play Monday night against the Buccaneers. Hurst has been one of the top rushing touchdown scorers since taking over as the starter, totaling double-digit rushing scores in three consecutive years. Furthermore, he had 15 rushing touchdowns during the regular season, the second-most in the NFL.

Hurts accounted for 68.2% of the team's rushing scores this year. The star quarterback found the end zone in 64.7% of the games, including six of the past eight before last week. More importantly, he scored the first Eagles offensive touchdown in 37.5% of the games during the regular season, including four of the past six contests. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers surrendered six rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, the second-most in the NFL, including one to Hurts in the Week 3 matchup.

Buccaneers First TD Scorer: Mike Evans (+265)

Many expected Evans to struggle in 2023. He had only six receiving touchdowns in 2022 despite playing with Tom Brady. Instead, the star wide receiver had 13 receiving touchdowns during the regular season, the most in the NFL and the second-highest total of his career. He accounted for nearly half of the team's receiving touchdowns, finding the end zone in 64.7% of the contests. More importantly, Evans scored the first Tampa Bay touchdown in nearly half of the games.

Furthermore, the former Texas A&M star had the Buccaneers' first touchdown in four of the past seven games and two of the past three. Meanwhile, the Eagles' pass defense has been awful this year. They surrendered 27 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers during the regular season, the second-most in the NFL. More importantly, opposing No. 1 wide receivers scored the first touchdown against Philadelphia in nearly 30% of the games, including Evans in the Week 3 matchup between these two teams.

Anytime TD Scorer: Dallas Goedert (+225)

Unfortunately, A.J. Brown won't play in this contest because of a knee injury he suffered a week ago against the New York Giants. That means more of the offense will fall on Goedert's back. The star tight end missed three games during the regular season because of a broken forearm. Yet, he still finished third on the team in receiving touchdowns behind Brown and DeVonta Smith. Goedert didn't find the end zone last week, but the starters were pulled from the contest.

However, he did score a touchdown in the Week 17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. More importantly, the Buccaneers surrendered seven receiving touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season, the fourth-most in the NFL. They also allowed four receiving touchdowns by a tight end over the past five weeks, giving up at least one in three contests. While he didn't find the end zone in the Week 3 matchup, don't be surprised if Goedert scores a touchdown with Brown out of the lineup.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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