NFL Wild Card Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
Wild Card Weekend is here, meaning we get three days of NFL playoff football. The week kicks off with two matchups on Saturday. The Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans kick off in the day’s first matchup. Then, the Miami Dolphins face the Kansas City Chiefs to wrap up the slate.
Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let’s take a look at my favorite touchdown bets for each game.
Wild Card Weekend Saturday Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Browns First TD Scorer: Jerome Ford (+400)
Many thought Cleveland’s rushing attack would struggle after the team lost Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury in Week 2. Instead, Ford has had a massive role in the Browns’ successful run game. The second-year running back leads the team in offensive touchdowns (nine), ranks second in rushing scores (four) and receiving touchdowns (five). Furthermore, he had the first Cleveland in nearly half of the team’s meaningful games this season, including two straight.
When these two teams faced off in Week 16, Ford had the first touchdown in the contest for the Browns, scoring from four yards away early in the first quarter. Unfortunately, that’s nothing new for the Texans. Houston surrendered 13 touchdowns to running backs and 19 total rushing scores during the regular season. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against the Texans was a rushing one in 53.3% of the games, including three consecutive contests.
Texans First TD Scorer: Nico Collins (+295)
Last week, Collins had a massive performance in a must-win matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, scoring a 75-yard receiving touchdown on the team’s first snap of the game. The former Michigan star has had a breakout year with C.J. Stroud under center with eight receiving touchdowns – the eighth-most during the regular season. More importantly, the wide receiver has been a scoring machine early in games. Collins has accounted for 35.7% of the team’s first offensive touchdown in the 15 games he played this year.
Cleveland had one of the top defenses during the regular season. However, the first touchdown scored against the Browns has been a receiving one in 57.1% of the games, including five consecutive meaningful contests. Furthermore, Denzel Ward injured his knee in Thursday’s practice. Head coach Kevin Stefanski said it’s unclear if the star cornerback will be ready to play this weekend. Collins had the first Houston offensive score in Week 16 against Cleveland. No one should be surprised if that happens again on Saturday.
Anytime TD Scorer: Kareem Hunt (+155)
After Chubb suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2, the Browns quickly brought back Hunt. The team had confidence in Ford but wanted to pair him with a veteran running back they could trust. Hunt hasn’t let the team down, leading Cleveland in offensive scores and rushing touchdowns (nine) despite missing the first two games. The veteran has had a rushing touchdown in 61.5% of the games since the bye week.
Furthermore, he scored in three of the past four meaningful games for the Browns, including the Week 16 matchup against the Texans. Houston gave up 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs, the 12th-most during the regular season. However, they have struggled to keep running backs out of the end zone lately. Over their past three games, the Texans have surrendered three rushing touchdowns to running backs, including two to the Browns’ backfield in Week 16.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Dolphins First TD Scorer: Raheem Mostert (+310)
Mostert has missed the past two games because of knee and ankle injuries. Hopefully, he can return for Saturday’s playoff matchup. However, De’Von Achane is the perfect replacement if Mostert gets ruled out for this game. The veteran running led the NFL in rushing touchdowns (18) and offensive scores (21) despite missing the past two contests. Furthermore, he found the end zone in 80% of the games he played during the regular season, including five consecutive matchups.
More importantly, Mostert had the team’s first offensive touchdown in 40% of the games he played during the regular season, including three straight before getting hurt. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately. They have held their opponent without an offensive touchdown in two of the past three weeks, making Miami not to score a touchdown at +850 an appealing option. However, Mostert has been a scoring machine all year, so expect him to find the end zone if he can play.
Chiefs First TD Scorer: Isiah Pacheco (+265)
While Patrick Mahomes is the superstar of the offense, Pacheco has played a significant role in his second year in the NFL, taking on a larger role on offense with the passing attack struggling. He had seven rushing touchdowns during the regular season after totaling five as a rookie. Furthermore, Pacheco led the Chiefs in offensive scores this year (nine), accounting for 77.8% of the team’s rushing touchdown total. More importantly, he has been the go-to guy early in games.
The talented running back scored the first Chiefs offensive touchdown in nearly half of the games he played during the regular season, including four consecutive. Meanwhile, the weather in Kansas City on Saturday night calls for freezing temperatures. That should lead to both teams running the ball at a higher-than-normal rate. Pacheco had a touchdown against the Dolphins in the Week 9 matchup. He should get a heavy workload in this game, given the expected weather conditions.
Anytime TD Scorer: Travis Kelce (+100)
Unfortunately, the future Hall of Fame tight end had a disappointing 2023 season by his own standards. Kelce has played through injuries all year and looks slow on the field. He had only five receiving touchdowns during the regular season, his lowest total since 2016. However, Kelce sat out the meaningless Week 18 contest, giving him two weeks to prepare for this game. Despite having a down year, the superstar tight end accounted for nearly 20% of Patrick Mahomes’ passing touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins surrendered seven receiving touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season, the fourth-most in the NFL. Unfortunately, the team has suffered massive losses on defense lately due to injuries. Miami gave up four receiving touchdowns to tight ends over the past two weeks, the most in the league. The weather for Saturday night’s game will limit how much the Chiefs push the ball downfield. Don’t be surprised if Mahomes leans on his superstar tight end more than usual.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Wild Card Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites
- NFL Wild Card Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
- NFL Wild Card Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Sunday)
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.