NFL Wild Card Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Sunday)

by Mike Fanelli |
Jan 14, 2024

Wild Card Weekend is here, meaning we get three days of NFL playoff football. We get two matchups on Sunday. The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys kick off the day's first matchup. Then, the Los Angeles Rams face the Detroit Lions to wrap up the slate.

Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look at my favorite touchdown bets for each game.

Wild Card Weekend Sunday Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Packers First TD Scorer: Jayden Reed (+450)

While Christian Watson could play on Sunday after missing the past five weeks with a hamstring injury, Reed has taken over as Jordan Love's go-to weapon. The rookie wide led the Packers in receiving touchdowns (eight) and offensive scores (10) while finishing second in rushing touchdowns (two). More importantly, the former Michigan State star had the first Green Bay touchdown in 29.4% of the games during the regular season, including four of the past eight contests.

The Cowboys held wide receivers to only 11 receiving touchdowns during the regular season, the third-lowest in the NFL. However, the Packers' offense is clicking. More importantly, they design ways for Reed to get the ball, posting a 21.7% designed play rate during the regular season (per Fantasy Points Data). Dallas has also struggled at defending the pass early in games, giving up a passing score as the first offensive touchdown in 57.1% of their matchups.

Cowboys First TD Scorer: CeeDee Lamb (+270)

Lamb had an outstanding 2023 season. Despite having only one receiving touchdown over the first seven weeks, the superstar wide receiver ended the year with 12, the third-most in the NFL. He has found the end zone in 10 of the past 11 games, including nine straight. More importantly, Lamb has been Dak Prescott's favorite target, especially early in games. The former Oklahoma star had the first Dallas touchdown in 41.2% of the games during the regular season.

Last week, Jalen Tolbert had the first Cowboys touchdown in the win over the Washington Commanders. However, Lamb scored twice in that game. Furthermore, he had scored the first Dallas touchdown in five consecutive games before last week's matchup against the NFC East division rivals. Meanwhile, opposing No. 1 wide receivers scored the first touchdown in the game for their team in 26.7% of the games against Green Bay, including Mike Evans a few weeks ago.

Anytime TD Scorer: Jake Ferguson (+145)

Many thought Ferguson could have a sophomore-year breakout after the Cowboys lost Dalton Schultz in the offseason. The former Wisconsin tight end had a productive 2023 season, totaling five receiving touchdowns, the third-most on the team behind CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. He hasn't found the end zone in five straight contests. However, Ferguson is getting the needed target volume to change that, seeing at least six targets in six consecutive games.

Furthermore, the young tight end earned eight targets in four of those six matchups. Meanwhile, the Packers have had issues keeping tight ends out of the end zone. They surrendered seven receiving touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season, the fourth-most in the NFL. A tight end has found the end zone in five of the past eight games against Green Bay. Don't be surprised if Ferguson takes advantage of the matchups and scores a red zone touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions

Rams First TD Scorer: Puka Nacua (+370)

Unfortunately, Nacua likely won't win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award because C.J. Stroud won the AFC South division title. However, the former BYU wide receiver has been outstanding. He led the Rams in receiving touchdowns this year (six). More importantly, the rookie turned into Matthew Stafford's go-to target since the start of his hot streak. Nacua had the first Los Angeles touchdown in half of the games since the bye week, including two of the past three.

Detroit has struggled to slow down opposing wide receivers. They surrendered 22 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers during the regular season, the third-most in the NFL. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against the Lions has been by a wide receiver in 53.3% of the games, including back-to-back weeks. Furthermore, Detroit surrendered 13 receiving touchdowns to outside wide receivers during the regular season, the fifth-most in the NFL (per Fantasy Points Data).

Lions First TD Scorer: Amon-Ra St. Brown (+425)

St. Brown had 11 receiving touchdowns over his first two years in the NFL. By comparison, the former USC star had 10 receiving touchdowns this season, a team-high and the fourth-most in the league. He has a receiving touchdown in seven of the nine games since the bye week, including four straight contests. However, St. Brown scored the first Detroit touchdown in only three games this year, with the latest coming in Week 6. Yet, don't be surprised if that changes on Sunday.

The first Lions touchdown was by a running back or Sam LaPorta in 11 consecutive contests. Yet, LaPorta might not play and will be far less than 100% if he suits up. Meanwhile, the Rams held running backs to only six rushing touchdowns during the regular season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. However, Los Angeles has struggled against slot receivers, surrendering the fourth-highest target per route run rate (24%), per Fantasy Points Data. Expect a big performance from St. Brown.

Anytime TD Scorer: Kyren Williams (-175)

While Williams missed four games this year because of an ankle injury, he still had 15 offensive touchdowns, the third-most in the NFL. The second-year running back had at least one touchdown in 75% of his games, including three rushing touchdowns in his final game of the regular season. Furthermore, Williams has found the end zone in six of the past seven games, including three straight. He had more games with two or more touchdowns (five) than none (three) during the regular season.

Meanwhile, the Lions have had an impressive run defense most of the year. However, they have had issues keeping star running backs out of the end zone. Detroit surrendered a rushing touchdown to Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs earlier this season. Furthermore, Alvin Kamara and Kenneth Walker III both had two rushing touchdowns against the Lions. While he won't have a three-touchdown performance on Sunday, Williams is all but a lock to find the end zone at least once in this matchup.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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