NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions (2025)
Now that we've reached the playoffs, the menu of player props is obviously going to be smaller because we're getting fewer games. On the bright side, the sportsbooks usually offer us more player props from each game.
However, I still hadn't seen any sportsbook post a yardage or reception prop for Packers TE Luke Musgrave as of Thursday night. That's disappointing. I'm eager to be the over on receptions and/or receiving yardage for Musgrave.
Musgrave played only seven games and had only seven receptions this season, but I think the Packers will use 12 personnel quite a bit Sunday in Philadelphia with WR Christian Watson out for the season. And if we do eventually get props for Musgrave, those numbers are going to be low and easy for him to hit. Keep an eye out for Musgrave receptions and yardage props, and if they’re posted, pounce on those overs.
But for now, let’s play the hand we've been dealt.
Before we get to this week’s selections, let's recap Week 17. Please note that our bet on the under for Chase Brown's rushing yardage was canceled when Brown didn't play due to an ankle injury. (Although that wasn't as disappointing as losing our Zach Charbonnet bet by a yard.)
The wins: Russell Wilson under 233.5 passing yards, Zach Ertz over 38.5 receiving yards, Marvin Mims over 31.5 receiving yards
The losses: Joe Burrow over 283.5 passing yards, Zach Charbonnet over 59.5 rushing yards, Jameson Williams over 57.5 receiving yards
Fitz’s Favorite NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Jan. 9.
- Last week: 3-3
- Season record: 92-85
Russell Wilson UNDER 207.5 passing yards
The Steelers' passing game has been dysfunctional for the last month. Over his last five games, Wilson has averaged 171.2 passing yards, clearing this number just once. He's averaged only 5.7 yards per pass attempt over that span.
Granted, the one time during that stretch when Wilson did throw for more than 207 yards was against the Ravens in Week 16, and he'll be facing Baltimore again this week.
The Ravens' pass defense was a sieve early in the season, but that has changed dramatically. Over their last seven games, the Ravens have allowed an average of 188.1 passing yards per game and 5.8 yards per attempt. No quarterback has thrown for more than 218 yards against the Ravens over that period. Since Week 16, the Ravens have had the league’s lowest opponent passer rating (69.0).
Baker Mayfield OVER 246.5 passing yards
Mayfield has topped this number in four of his last five games, completing 73.0% of his throws and averaging 9.0 yards per attempt over that span. He's averaged 264.7 passing yards a game for the season.
The Buccaneers are preparing to face the Commanders, their Week 1 opponents. Mayfield completed 80% of his passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns in the season opener against Washington. The Commanders rank 20th in DVOA against the pass.
In two playoff starts for the Buccaneers last season, Mayfield threw for 337 and 349 yards.
The Vegas total for Commanders-Buccaneers is 50.5 points, suggesting a shootout. The over on Mayfield's yardage total looks like a juicy play.
Nelson Agholor OVER 20.5 receiving yards
With Zay Flowers ruled out for the Ravens' playoff opener against the Steelers with a knee injury, Agholor is likely to start at wide receiver for the Ravens opposite their other outside receiver, Rashod Bateman. Agholor has missed Baltimore's last three games with a concussion but has been practicing this week and is expected to play.
Flowers had 74 catches for 1,059 yards this season, so his absence leaves a major void. Agholor figures to play a robust snap share and has a good chance to see at least four or five targets, which makes him a good bet to clear this low bar.
Agholor had nine catches for 103 yards in two games against the Steelers last season, and he had six catches for 110 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh in 2022 when Agholor was with New England.
Jaylen Warren OVER 20.5 receiving yards
Warren has topped this number in six of his nine games, averaging 2.9 catches and 27.0 receiving yards a game over that stretch. The Pittsburgh passing game has really struggled in recent weeks, so Steelers QB Russell Wilson may have to lean on his running backs as dump-off options.
The Ravens are tough against the run, with no team allowing fewer rushing yards to RBs this season. But the Ravens are generous to running backs in the passing game. Baltimore allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to RBs.
In two previous games against the Ravens this season, Warren had four catches for 27 yards in Week 11 and five catches for 44 yards in Week 16.
Amari Cooper OVER 20.5 receiving yards
The Bills excused Cooper from their regular-season finale so that he could deal with an undisclosed family matter, but he's back with the team.
Cooper's usage has been erratic since the Bills acquired him in a midseason trade with the Browns. He's had four games with 55 or more receiving yards and three games with 12 or fewer receiving yards.
As good as the Broncos have been defensively this season, they've still allowed the ninth-most receiving yards. The Broncos may have ace cornerback Patrick Surtain shadow Cooper for most of their game against the Bills this weekend, but it's also possible the Broncos put Surtain on rookie WR Keon Coleman on a lot of snaps.
For me, the analysis is pretty simple: Cooper has had a terrific career, and I think he's still good enough to clear this extremely low bar.
Cade Otton UNDER 30.5 receiving yards
Otton has missed the Buccaneers' last three games with a knee injury but is expected back this week.
There was a time earlier this season when Otton was a major contributor to the Tampa Bay passing game. But Otton has been far less involved lately. Otton has just 10 catches over his last four games, and he's fallen short of this number in three of those contests. Buccaneers rookie WR Jalen McMillan has stepped up as a credible complement to star WR Mike Evans, making Otton less of a factor.
The Buccaneers will face the Commanders, who have been a tough matchup for tight ends. Washington has allowed the third-fewest receptions and fifth-fewest receiving yards to TEs. Commanders LB Bobby Wagner and S Jeremy Chinn have both been good in coverage this season. I don't think Otton clears this number.