Top 3 NHL Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (12/29)
We have a loaded 11-game slate of hockey on Thursday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my three best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Top 3 NHL Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (12/29)
Chicago Blackhawks (+215) @ St. Louis Blues (-255) | O/U 6 (-110/-110)
There is a Central Division clash with the fifth-place St. Louis Blues hosting the eighth-place Chicago Blackhawks. Despite the juice, the Blues are the team to back in this contest as the Hawks continue to blatantly tank for Connor Bedard.
Chicago enters this contest in terrible form, losing 16 of its last 18 games. Of those 16 losses, 14 have come by at least a two-goal margin.
The Blues boast the advantage in every category one could think of in this contest. At 5-on-5, they rank high in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), and they boast the better goaltender as Jordan Binnington is set to guard the cage for St. Louis.
While Binnington has not had his best season, he has still been better than Petr Mrazek, who is the projected starter for Chicago. Through 13 starts, Mrazek is 2-9-1 with a .881 save percentage (SV%) and 4.12 goals against average (GAA).
If he qualified, Mrazek would rank second-to-last among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Chicago has already given up on the season, evidenced by the lack of effort the players are showing on the ice over the past couple of weeks.
Going on the road against a divisional opponent should be no different, especially considering the Blues are better in every single metric.
Best Bet: Blues -1.5 (-105)
Ottawa Senators (+145) @ Washington Capitals (-170) | O/U 6 (-110/-110)
There is an Eastern Conference tilt with the Metropolitan Division’s Washington Capitals hosting the Atlantic Division’s Ottawa Senators. Both of these offenses are primed for positive regression, making the over an enticing play at six.
At 5-on-5, the Capitals rank 20th in the league in GF/60 but 16th in xGF/60. Meanwhile, the Sens rank 27th in the league in GF/60 but ninth in xGF/60.
Considering that both clubs rank in the bottom half of the league in xGA/60, six goals should not be too difficult to come by. Looking at the snipers on each team, there is more than enough firepower to register at least six goals between Claude Giroux, Alex DeBrincat, and, of course, Alex Ovechkin.
Slated to take the crease for Ottawa is goaltender Cam Talbot. While his surface-level stats are quite good, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming for the veteran netminder.
Among starting goaltenders, Talbot ranks just 25th in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. The biggest concern in this contest is goaltender Darcy Kuemper, who is projected to start between the pipes for Washington.
He is the main reason this total is set at six instead of 6.5, but the expected positive regression for both teams offensively, mixed with below-average blue lines, should be enough to offset the difference he will make in the crease.
Best Bet: Over 6 (-110)
Dallas Stars (+100) @ Minnesota Wild (-120) | O/U 6 (-105/-115)
There is a Central Division tilt, with the third-place Minnesota Wild hosting the first-place Dallas Stars. Each of these teams has recently been involved in low-scoring contests, with six or fewer total goals scored in seven of Dallas’ last nine games and seven of Minnesota’s last eight.
These trends should continue in this matchup as goaltender Jake Oettinger is slated to take the crease for the Stars. This season, Oettinger is 15-5-3 with a .919 SV% and 2.43 GAA.
Entering this contest in particularly dominant form, he is 5-2 with a .929 SV% and 2.12 GAA over his last seven starts. There were six or fewer total goals scored in six of those seven outings.
Across the ice, goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is slated to guard the cage for Minnesota. While he struggled out of the gates this season, the future Hall-of-Famer has been on fire recently.
Over Fleury’s last three starts, he is 3-0 with a .959 SV% and 1.00 GAA. This strong stretch of goaltending will likely continue against Dallas, a team he has dominated over the last few seasons.
Over his last eight starts against the Stars, Fleury is 6-1-1 with a .950 SV% and 1.60 GAA. With one of the best defensive systems in the league in front of him, Fleury’s recent success should continue in what should be a tremendous goaltending matchup.
Best Bet: Under 6 (-115)
Best of luck!
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