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NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/17)

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We have a small four-game slate of hockey on Friday with a couple of great matchups. Below, I give out my two best bets for Friday’s NHL slate.

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Friday:

Friday’s Best NHL Bets

Carolina Hurricanes (+105) @ Toronto Maple Leafs (-125) | O/U 6 (-120/+100)

In the best game of Friday’s slate, there is an Eastern Conference tilt with the Atlantic Division’s Toronto Maple Leafs hosting the Metropolitan Division’s Carolina Hurricanes. Entering this contest in good form, Carolina has won five of its last seven games, a trend that is likely to continue in this heavyweight battle.

While Toronto is obviously very good, they lag behind the Canes in almost every category. At 5-on-5, the Leafs rank sixth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 11th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

On the flip side, at 5-on-5, Carolina ranks second in the league in xGF/60 and first in xGA/60. The one advantage the Leafs possess is in net, with goaltender Ilya Samsonov slated to start between the pipes on Friday.

Through 34 appearances in the crease this season, Samsonov is 23-8-3 with a .916 save percentage (SV%) and 2.36 goals against average (GAA). However, across the ice, goaltender Frederik Andersen is projected to start against his former team for the Canes.

Entering this matchup in good form, Andersen is 6-3 with a .918 SV% and 1.97 GAA over his last nine starts. While Toronto boasts home-ice advantage, that is not enough in my opinion to put a plus-sign next to Carolina’s name.

Best Bet: Hurricanes ML (+105 via BetMGM)

Buffalo Sabres (-141) @ Philadelphia Flyers (+117) | O/U 6.5 (-115/-106)

We are going to back another underdog in the Philadelphia Flyers, who host the Buffalo Sabres at the Wells Fargo Center. After dropping four straight games, Philadelphia gets the chance to snap the skid after two days of rest.

Buffalo is severely due for regression offensively. At 5-on-5, it ranks third in the league in goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60) but just 17th in xGF/60.

Meanwhile, the Flyers boast the advantage defensively as they rank 17th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) while the Sabres rank 26th. Philadelphia also boasts the advantage in net, with goaltender Carter Hart projected to start between the pipes.

Through 48 appearances in the crease this season, Hart boasts a .906 SV% and 2.96 GAA. Based on his underlying metrics, regression should not be an issue as he ranks 13th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

This strong play is likely to continue against Buffalo, a team he is 3-2 against in his career with a .906 SV% and 2.73 GAA.

Best Bet: Flyers ML (+117 via BetRivers)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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