Top 3 NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (1/6)
We have a small six-game slate of hockey on Friday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my three best bets for Friday’s NHL slate.
Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Top 3 NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (1/6)
Florida Panthers (-145) @ Detroit Red Wings (+125) | O/U 6.5 (-115/-105)
There is an Atlantic Division tilt with the fifth-place Detroit Red Wings hosting the seventh-place Florida Panthers. The Red Wings enter this contest in poor form as they have lost eight of their last 11 games, a trend that is likely to continue in this matchup.
Slated to take the crease for Florida is goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, who has absolutely dominated Detroit throughout his career. Across 30 career appearances in the crease against the Red Wings, Bobrovsky is 22-6-1 with a stellar .937 save percentage (SV%) and 1.86 goals against average (GAA).
In front of Bobrovsky is an extremely underrated blue line that ranks 13th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. Meanwhile, goal support should not be an issue for this fast-paced club as the Panthers rank second in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.
On the flip side, the Red Wings currently do not compare to Florida’s metrics. At 5-on-5, Detroit ranks just 29th in the league in xGF/60 and 20th in xGA/60.
While goaltender Ville Husso should be able to somewhat keep them in this game, that does not justify the Panthers’ generous price of -145 given the discrepancy of the 5-on-5 metrics of each team. Give me the better team with a goaltender who has dominated Detroit for years as a short favorite.
Best Bet: Panthers ML (-145)
New York Islanders (+170) @ Calgary Flames (-200) | O/U 6 (-105/-115)
The Pacific Division’s Calgary Flames host the Metropolitan Division’s New York Islanders. Calgary has won by two or more goals in four of the last five meetings between these two teams, a trend that is likely to continue as the Islanders enter this contest on the second half of a back-to-back following last night’s game against the Edmonton Oilers.
Since goaltender Ilya Sorokin started last night’s game for New York, backup netminder Semyon Varlamov is slated to get the nod against Calgary. Varlamov has not played since December 17 due to a lower body injury, which could result in some rust for an otherwise competent backup.
Over his last three starts against the Flames, Varlamov is 0-3 with a troubling .840 SV% and 4.48 GAA. In front of the Islanders’ netminder is a fade-worthy defense that is missing its best blue liner, Adam Pelech, due to a concussion.
At 5-on-5, New York ranks just 21st in the league in xGA/60. Meanwhile, the offense is not much better as the Islanders rank 20th in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
On the flip side, at 5-on-5, Calgary ranks ninth in the league in xGF/60 and eighth in xGA/60. Unlike Varlamov, goaltender Jacob Markstrom has had recent success against tonight’s opponent as he is 3-0-1 with a .913 SV% and 2.70 GAA over his last four starts against New York.
Best Bet: Flames -1.5 (+135)
Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) @ Winnipeg Jets (+110) | O/U 6 (-115/-105)
The Central Division’s Winnipeg Jets host the Atlantic Division’s Tampa Bay Lightning in what should be an entertaining affair. There have been six or more total goals scored in each of the last six meetings between these two clubs, a trend that is likely to continue on Friday.
There is no question that the projected goaltending matchup, Connor Hellebuyck vs Andrei Vasilevskiy, is an elite one. However, both of these guys have struggled mightily against tonight’s opponent.
Through nine career starts against Winnipeg, Vasilevskiy is just 4-4-1 with a .891 SV% and 3.44 GAA. On the other hand, Hellebuyck is just 4-3-1 with a .863 SV% and 4.53 GAA through nine career appearances against the Bolts.
Neither of these blue lines are anything to brag about in the defensive zone as each rank in the bottom half of the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay boasts one of the best offenses in hockey as it ranks third in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
The Jets’ offense, while not as dominant, is due for some positive regression as they rank 22nd in the league in GF/60 but 16th in xGF/60. Oddsmakers set the total at six due to the elite goaltending matchup, but given all these other variables, the over is the play to make.
Best Bet: Over 6 (-115)
Best of luck!
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.