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Top 3 NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (1/21)

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The 2022-23 NHL season has crossed the midway point. With the All-Star break in sight, the next two weeks will play a role in determining which teams are buyers or sellers at the upcoming trade deadline. Lets’ get right into Saturday’s 14-game slate.

Here are all of our best bets for Saturday:

Top 3 NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: January 21, 2023

Below are my favorite plays among Saturday’s 14 games.

Minnesota Wild (-105) at Florida Panthers (-115), Total 6.5

After a slow start to the season, the Panthers are trending upward. They are all in on a playoff run in 2023 under first-year head coach Paul Maurice. Finally, the Panthers have looked like a playoff contender, going 6-3-1 in their last 10. They have pulled within four points of the Pittsburgh Penguins for the last wild-card spot.

The Wild sit in a more comfortable playoff position but have gone just 5-3-2 over their last 10. Still, the metrics suggest Florida has been the better team during recently.

The Panthers have played better as of late at 5-on-5 play, with a 50.39 Corsi For Percentage and a 51.88 expected goals for percentage. Minnesota has been a below average team at even strength over its last 10 games. And more importantly, Minnesota might be due for some regression. The Wild have a goals for percentage of 58.82% but an expected goals for percentage of 46.85%. In other words, Minnesota is getting better results than they’ve deserved.

Minnesota has been buoyed by exceptional goaltending from Filip Gustavsson, who has posted 12.3 goals saved above expectation, the ninth-best mark in the NHL. Gustavsson will likely see the crease after Marc-Andre Fleury started the last two games for Minnesota.

Florida’s goaltending situation is a bit more tenuous, as Sergei Bobrovsky has been unsteady and Spencer Knight has been sent down to the AHL after a disappointing 19 starts. The assumption is Bobrovsky will get the net Saturday.

Despite the potential advantage in net for Minnesota, I’ll ride with the home team that’s generating more scoring chances at 5-on-5 play.

The pick: Florida -115

Philadelphia Flyers (+120) at Detroit Red Wings (-140), Total 6

We continue with two teams that likely won’t be contending for a postseason berth but are close together in the standings. The Flyers and Red Wings have both generally exceeded expectations this season. But there’s a clear side in this contest.

Philadelphia is coming off a poor showing at home against the Chicago Blackhawks, losing 4-1 on home ice. The Flyers play a hard-nosed style under head coach John Tortarella, but they’ve done a good job of controlling play at 5-on-5. Philadelphia is above average in both possession and expected goals with a 53.13 xGF%.

Detroit is coming off a surprising road upset over the Vegas Golden Knights that felt more like a fluke than a sign of things to come. The Red Wings were outshot 35-25 in that game and likely would’ve lost if not for Ville Husso’s 33-save performance. That type of showing has been an anomaly for Husso, who has a -5.4 goals saved above expected rating as well as a .900 save percentage and 3.06 goals against average.

The Flyers should hold an advantage between the pipes with Carter Hart, regardless of if it’s Husso or Magnus Hellberg in net. This feels like a good spot to back the Flyers off a bad loss and sell Detroit high after a surprising win.

The pick: Flyers +120

Winnipeg Jets (-136) at Ottawa Senators (+115), Total 6.5

The Winnipeg Jets are in need of a bounce back effort after dropping their first two legs of their Canadian road trip to Montreal and Toronto in matching 4-1 losses. Look no further than a Senators team that’s driving play at 5-on-5, but can’t seem to get out of its own way and are coming off of a back-to-back.

This is admittedly more of a situational play considering the two teams have both been rather even at 5-on-5 play. But the difference will come down to Winnipeg’s playmakers and goaltending. The Jets hold advantages in both the scoring chances for and high-danger chances for categories. But the trump card is Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes. Hellebuyck has the fourth-best goals saved above expectation rating in the NHL, and is a far better netminder than Ottawa’s likely starter, Anton Forsberg.

The pick: Winnipeg -136

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