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NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/6)

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We have a stacked 14-game slate of hockey on Thursday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my two best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate.

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

Today’s Best NHL Bets

Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook

Philadelphia Flyers (+205) @ Dallas Stars (-250) | O/U 6 (-112/-109)

The Central Division’s Dallas Stars host the Metropolitan Division’s Philadelphia Flyers in this Thursday night tilt. Historically, the Under is extremely profitable when these two clubs meet, with six or fewer total goals scored in 17 of the last 20 matchups.

Over its last six games, Philadelphia is averaging just 2.8 goals scored. This inefficient offense is not surprising, given the Flyers' offensive metrics.

At 5-on-5, they rank just 24th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). The defense is not much better, but Philadelphia ranks much closer to league average in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

Backing up this club is goaltender Carter Hart, who is currently questionable with a lower-body injury. However, Hart is traveling with the team for this contest, which makes me believe he will make his first start since his shutout performance against the Detroit Red Wings on March 25.

Putting together a string of incredible performances prior to the injury, Hart is 4-0 with a .933 save percentage (SV%) and 2.20 goals against average (GAA) over his past four starts.

His underlying metrics are just as strong this season. Among starting goaltenders, Hart ranks 12th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

Across the ice, goaltender Jake Oettinger is slated to get the nod for Dallas. Through 58 appearances in the crease this season, Oettinger is 33-11-11 with a .917 SV% and 2.47 GAA.

Entering this matchup in particularly good form, he is 3-1 with a .926 SV% and 2.03 GAA over his past four starts. In front of Oettinger is one of the better two-way teams in the Western Conference.

Boasting a strong blue that is spearheaded by one of the best defensemen in the league in Miro Heiskanen, the Stars rank ninth in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. However, while the offense is good, it sits right at league average in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

Best Bet: Under 6 (-109)

Buffalo Sabres (-115) @ Detroit Red Wings (-106) | O/U 6.5 (-129/+106)

There is an Atlantic Division tilt, with the seventh-place Detroit Red Wings hosting the fifth-place Buffalo Sabres. This is the fourth and final meeting between these two clubs this season, as Buffalo attempts the season sweep after winning each of the first three matchups.

Entering this contest in good form, the Buffalo Sabres have won four of their last six games. The main conversation surrounding Buffalo is the play of goaltender Devon Levi, who made his first two career starts over that stretch and looks like he could be a force to be reckoned with in the NHL.

Over those two starts, Levi has produced a dominating .942 save percentage (SV%) and 1.98 goals against average (GAA). Remarkably, those two outings came against the Florida Panthers and New York Rangers, two playoff teams with stacked rosters.

While the Sabres boast one of the league's best offenses, the Detroit Red Wings possess one of the league's worst. This season, Detroit ranks just 22nd in goals scored per game, and its underlying metrics are even worse.

At 5-on-5, the Red Wings rank 29th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). The problem for Detroit is that its defense is hardly any better, outside of last season's Calder Trophy winner Moritz Seider, who happens to turn 22 years old today.

Perhaps for his birthday, he should ask for some help from the rest of this defense. This season, the Red Wings rank in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed per game.

Backing up this team is goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic, who was recalled from AHL Grand Rapids on Wednesday and is expected to start against Buffalo. Nedeljkovic is just 5-6-2 through 14 appearances between the pipes with a .895 SV% and 3.56 GAA.

Best Bet: Sabres ML (-115)

Best of luck!

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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