Top 3 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/23)
We have a loaded 11-game slate of hockey on Friday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my three best bets for Friday’s NHL slate.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Top 3 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/23)
Winnipeg Jets (+140) @ Washington Capitals (-165) | O/U 6 (-110/-110)
The Metropolitan Division’s Washington Capitals host the Central Division’s Winnipeg Jets on the final day before the holiday recess. There have been seven or more total goals scored in each of the last three meetings between these two clubs, a trend that is likely to continue on Friday.
Since Winnipeg enters this contest on the second half of a back-to-back, backup goaltender David Rittich is slated to get the start between the pipes. While Rittich has been a more-than-serviceable backup this season, his metrics suggest that regression is looming.
If he qualified, Rittich would rank 22nd among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Washington also enters this contest on the second half of a back-to-back, which means its backup goaltender, Charlie Lindgren, will start in the crease.
In a similar situation to Rittich, Lindgren’s solid surface-level stats overshadow his weaker underlying metrics. If he qualified, Lindgren would rank 23rd among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.
Meanwhile, each team’s metrics suggest that higher-scoring games are ahead. Both teams rank higher in the league standings in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) than GF/60 and lower in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) than GA/60.
With two backup goaltenders primed for regression and two teams that are destined for higher-scoring games in the near future, the total is set too low at six for this contest.
St. Louis Blues (+140) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-165) | O/U 6 (+100/-120)
There is a Western Conference tilt with the Pacific Division’s Vegas Golden Knights hosting the Central Division’s St. Louis Blues. Slated to take the crease for St. Louis is goaltender Jordan Binnington, who should be a good fade candidate in this contest.
Through 24 starts this season, Binnington is 12-11-1 with a .897 SV% and 3.11 GAA. Based on his metrics, positive regression is unlikely for the Blues’ netminder as he ranks in the bottom among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.
To be fairer to Binnington, the defense in front of him is atrocious. At 5-on-5, St. Louis ranks just 26th in the league in xGA/60.
The poor defensive play is not shocking given the Blues’ aging blue line and the pre-season injuries to defensemen Marco Scandella and Scott Perunovich. However, this offense has not been much better either as St. Louis ranks just 21st in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
Jordan Kyrou could also miss this game for the Blues, who is the leading point scorer for this team that needs better production at even strength. Meanwhile, at 5-on-5, the Knights rank higher in both xGF/60 and xGA/60 (sixth and eighth, respectively).
Vegas also boasts the advantage in net as goaltender Logan Thompson is expected to get the start. Through 23 starts this season, Thompson is 15-8 with a .917 SV% and 2.61 GAA.
Add in home ice, and the Golden Knights should be able to bag two points with a win over the Blues in this contest.
Best Bet: Golden Knights ML (-165)
Florida Panthers (-135) @ New York Islanders (+115) | O/U 6.5 (-105/-115)
There is an Eastern Conference tilt with the Metropolitan Division’s New York Islanders hosting the Atlantic Division’s Florida Panthers. Florida enters this contest amidst a stretch of lower-scoring contests as there have been six or fewer total goals scored in eight of their last 11 games, a trend that is likely to continue with the goaltending matchup.
Despite entering this matchup on the second half of a back-to-back, goaltender Ilya Sorokin is likely to get the start in net once again for the Islanders due to the approaching holiday recess and the fact that backup netminder Semyon Varlamov is still battling a lower-body injury. A likely Vezina Trophy finalist this season, Sorokin boasts a .924 SV% and 2.44 GAA.
Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue as he ranks second among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. Across the ice, goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is the confirmed starter for Florida.
After a brutal start to the campaign, Bobrovsky has recently started to return to form. Over his last four starts, he boasts a .935 SV% and 2.02 GAA, with the under cashing in all four of those outings.
This strong stretch of goaltending should continue against New York, a team Bobrovsky has dominated throughout his career. Over his last eight starts against the Islanders, he is 5-3 with an absurd .956 SV% and 1.26 GAA.
There have been six or fewer total goals scored in nine of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs, a trend that is likely to continue in this matchup.
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.