Top 2 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/4)
We have a mini two-game slate of hockey on Friday, with the Colorado Avalanche hosting the Columbus Blue Jackets during the day and the Carolina Hurricanes hosting the Buffalo Sabres at night. Below, I give out my two best bets for Friday’s NHL slate.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Columbus Blue Jackets (+210) @ Colorado Avalanche (-250) | O/U 6.5 (-125/+105)
The Central Division’s Colorado Avalanche host the Metropolitan Division’s Columbus Blue Jackets to kick off Friday’s two-game slate. This contest is the first of a two-game series between these clubs in Finland.
One of the worst defensive teams in hockey, Columbus ranks just 23rd in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5. Poor defensive play is a trend that has started to develop under head coach Brad Larsen in each of his first two seasons with the team, as the Blue Jackets finished last season ranked 31st in GA and 32nd in xGA.
Backing up this poor defensive team is Elvis Merzlikins, who is confirmed to start between the pipes on Friday. This season, Merzlikins is 2-4 with a .864 SV% and 4.75 GAA.
At 5v5, he ranks dead last among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60). Meanwhile, Colorado’s defense is also due for some regression.
This season at 5v5, the Avs rank second in GA/60 but just 17th in xGA/60. There are plenty of talented offensive threats on both sides of the ice to take advantage of two teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in xGA/60, especially when one of those two teams is starting the worst statistical starting goaltender in hockey this season.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-125)
Buffalo Sabres (+175) @ Carolina Hurricanes (-205) | O/U 6.5 (-110/-110)
On Friday, we are taking another over as the Metropolitan Division’s Carolina Hurricanes host the Atlantic Division’s Buffalo Sabres. Seven or more total goals have been scored in each of Buffalo’s last three games and in three of Carolina’s last four, two trends that should continue on Friday.
Additionally, the over has hit in seven of the last nine meetings between these two clubs. The primary reason for taking this over is Buffalo’s defense.
At 5v5, the Sabres rank just 20th in the league in xGA/60. It is not shocking that defense has been an issue for this group, considering that they are missing three defensemen: Henri Jokiharju, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Mattias Samuelsson.
Backing up this defense is goaltender Eric Comrie. Comrie possesses a .898 SV% and 3.29 GAA through seven starts this season.
Among starting goaltenders, he ranks just 22nd in GSAx/60 at 5v5. Across the ice, we could see a tired Carolina defense in the second half of a back-to-back following last night’s shootout victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning.
There are plenty of stars between these two teams, so seven goals should not be too difficult to come by, considering the circumstances.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-110)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.