NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (3/24)
There are a lot of teams in contention for the NHL playoffs. We’ve seen that all some teams need to do is get in and make a huge run. Let’s break down a couple of today’s games and give you our best bets.
Monday's NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Columbus Blue Jackets (+114) at New York Islanders (-135) | O/U 6.5 (+110/-130)
The Blue Jackets are one of the best stories this season. They were one of the worst teams last season and now are a surprise playoff contender.
They have picked the worst time to be playing their worst hockey, though, as they have one point in their last six games. As a result, they have lost their playoff spot and now sit four points behind in the final Wild Card spot. If you take a deep dive into their numbers, their offense is still playing up to par because of their expected goal share. Corsi and Fenwick Rates have been above 53% in five of those six games. This could be a case of bad luck.
The Islanders are just two points ahead of the Blue Jackets in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They've been one of those teams that can get on a hot streak and then immediately go cold. They have been playing well recently, going 3-0-2, which includes an overtime loss to Edmonton and a win against Florida.
However, it is difficult to see them making a push. They rely on defense and goaltending but have regressed. They are allowing 2.96 goals per game (16th) and 28.9 shots per game. Ilya Sorokin's 2.72 goals allowed this season are better than the 3.15 he allowed last year, but he still hasn't been the same goalie from the start of his career.
Both games this season between these two teams have been low-scoring, with each going under five goals. Although Columbus’ defense is near the bottom, the Islanders don’t generate enough offense to take advantage.
Pick: Under 6.5 Goals (-130)
Minnesota Wild (+185) at Dallas Stars (-225) | O/U 5.5 (-102/-118)
The Stars could be fun to watch when the playoffs start, but they need to get better at winning first. They made one of the more significant trades by acquiring Mikko Rantanen, who has back-to-back seasons of 100 points. The expectations have been set higher with that move, but since March 8th, they have not won consecutive games. The good news is they are coming away with points, with a recent record of 3-1-2.
The depleted defense has not supported them recently. They are playing without two key defensemen - Nils Lundkvist is done for the season and Miro Heiskanen is likely to miss at least the first round of the playoffs. Over their last seven games, they have been far below their season average and have allowed 27.7 shots per game (19th) and 3.00 goals per game (22nd).
Minnesota would love to get their fourth straight win and inch closer to the Stars in the Central Division. Consistency has been a problem for the Wild throughout the season. This offense will not dominate, as they have just a 49.6% expected goal share and generate only three high-danger shots per game, the fifth-lowest in the league.
However, the defense only allows 3.02 high-danger shots, which is the second-lowest in the NHL. Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury switched off starts in past years, but Gustavsson has become the primary goalie in Fleury’s final year of a Hall of Fame career. At times, both goalies have struggled, and that cannot happen for this team if they want a chance at a playoff run.
Both previous matchups have gone below six goals. The defense should still play a large role, especially with the goalie talent both teams have.
Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (-118)