NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Thursday (3/20)

Thursday’s NHL slate features some massive matchups, with playoff implications in both conferences. 28 of the league’s 32 teams will be on the ice tonight, providing ample opportunity to find value on this betting board.

Last week’s NHL best bets settled 1-1. St. Louis lost 5-3 on the road against Pittsburgh for a loss, failing to hit their moneyline odds. The winner was backing the Los Angeles Kings’ moneyline odds, shutting out Washington 3-0 for a sweat-free payout.

I’ve got two moneyline favorites, each worth one unit, to place on Thursday’s NHL slate. These are both high-stakes games between quality opponents, so it should be a lot of fun to watch. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NHL free bets and weekly analysis.

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Thursday’s NHL Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Colorado Avalanche vs. Ottawa Senators

Colorado is playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road against Ottawa on Thursday night. The Avalanche just lost 2-1 in regulation against Toronto on Wednesday night, giving up a short-handed goal in the 3rd period to lose momentum, snapping a two-game win streak against Calgary and Dallas.

The Avs are expected to start goaltender Scott Wedgewood in the crease tonight. Wedgewood has a 2.49 GAA and a .906 save percentage, going 10-6 as a starter, with two shutouts. Colorado has won four straight games with Wedgewood in between the pipes, limiting teams to six total goals during those four victories.

Ottawa is coming off of a 6-3 loss to a surging Montreal offense, ending a six-game winning streak for the Senators. Ottawa is currently the top Wild Card seed in the Eastern Conference, with a bit of margin for error. They are also coming off of a rest advantage.

Linus Ullmark will man the crease for Ottawa. Ullmark’s been solid this season but he’s allowed three or more goals in eight of ten starts since returning from the 4 Nations Face-Off in mid-February. The Avalanche will be motivated to avenge their loss against Toronto and have one of the league’s top-ranked offenses, led by Nathan MacKinnon, so I’m going to back the road favorite in this spot.

Pick: Avalanche Moneyline (-130)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars

Tampa Bay heads out west to take on the Dallas Stars on Thursday night. The Lightning lost their only head-to-head matchup against the Stars back in November, 4-2, on home ice. Tampa Bay is coming off of a pedestrian 2-0 road win over Philadelphia, marking its second straight win after routing Boston 6-2 to snap a three-game losing skid.

Dallas is 12-0 as home favorites coming off of a win this season. The Stars are 25-7-1 at home, while the Lightning are 15-15-3 on the road. Casey DeSmith is in the crease for Dallas tonight, winning six consecutive starts for the Stars. DeSmith has held opponents to three or fewer goals during this span, including a shutout against St. Louis. DeSmith’s last start saw the Stars beat Vancouver 4-1 on the road.

Dallas is a tough team to beat at home. The Lightning are among the best offenses in the NHL this season, ranked second in goals per game (3.5), yet Dallas is right behind them averaging 3.4 goals per matchup. The Stars are fifth in goals allowed (2.6), ninth in shots on goal, and eighth in face-off win percentage.

The Lightning are a streaky team, so I’m going to back Dallas at home on the moneyline, where they tend to play their best puck. -115 odds is good value for a team of this caliber, so let’s bet on DeSmith and the Stars to get it done on Thursday night.

Pick: Stars Moneyline (-115)