NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Thursday (3/6)
It’s another busy day in the NHL, with nine games on tap for Thursday night. The 2024-25 Stanley Cup Playoffs start on April 20th, so these final 19-21 games for most teams in the league take on much higher stakes.
Last Thursday’s NHL best bets settled 1-1. My first bet, Columbus’ +134 moneyline odds on the road against Detroit, settled as a win. The Blue Jackets scored four goals in the 2nd period to record a huge win over the Red Wings to move into an Eastern Conference Wild Card seed.
My other bet was on the Pittsburgh Penguins Under 2.5 total goals against the Philadelphia Flyers. This looked like a winner after the 1st period. However, the Penguins netted three goals in the 2nd period, ultimately resulting in a 5-4 overtime win to lose this wager. Fortunately, I still finished slightly up by cashing the Blue Jackets moneyline at +134.
I’m back with two NHL bets to place on Thursday’s board. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NHL free bets and weekly analysis.
Thursday’s NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars
Calgary heads to Dallas looking to gain some separation in the Western Conference Wild Card race with a win over one of the NHL’s hottest teams. The Stars are 5-1 SU since returning from the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, with their lone loss coming 6-4 on the road against Columbus.
Jake Oettinger and Dan Vladar are the netminders in this Western Conference tilt tonight. Oettinger has allowed three or more goals in three of four starts for the Stars since coming back to action, but he’s been bailed out by Dallas’ high-octane offense. His last two starts have seen the Stars’ netminder give up five total goals, yet Dallas won 6-2 against the Kings and 6-3 against the Blues.
Vladar has been solid in the net for Calgary, allowing three or fewer goals in each of his last three starts. His last outing saw the Flames get blanked 3-0 on the road against the Panthers.
I expect the Stars to win this game 5-3 or 4-2, which means I’m on their -1.5 puck line at even odds. The Flames have lost each of their last eight road games following a road win, while the Stars enter tonight’s home game with a +52 goal differential. Yes, Calgary did just win 6-3 against Philadelphia in their last game. Dallas is a much better team that will test Vladar and the Flames’ defensive prowess all night long in the offensive zone.
The previous meeting between these two teams this season resulted in Dallas winning 6-2 at home. Let’s bet another unit on the Stars to collect their fourth straight win in dominant fashion against a Flames’ offense ranked last in goals per game (2.59) this season.
Pick: Stars -1.5 (+100)
Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay looks to keep rolling after routing Columbus 6-2 at home on Tuesday. The Lightning have a choice matchup against the Buffalo Sabres, who enter this game with the fewest points (54) in the Eastern Conference.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has already been announced as Tampa Bay’s goaltender against the Sabres for Thursday. Vasilevskiy has been on fire lately, allowing two or fewer goals in all five starts since coming back from the 4 Nations Face-Off break. His last start did result in a 2-1 loss against the Florida Panthers, snapping the Lightning’s eight-game winning streak.
Buffalo does have scoring talent despite their lack of wins. The Sabres have scored 191 goals this season, which is more than 10 other Eastern Conference franchises.
Ultimately, I believe Buffalo gets stonewalled by Vasilevskiy off of rest. The Sabres have been held to two or fewer goals in three of their last four games, including Montreal and San Jose. Let’s bet one more unit on Tampa Bay’s top goaltender to hold Buffalo under 2.5 total goals at -116 odds.
Pick: Sabres Total Goals Under 2.5 (-116)
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.