Top 3 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (12/15)
We have a loaded 12-game slate of hockey on Thursday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my three best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Vegas Golden Knights (-205) @ Chicago Blackhawks (+175) | O/U 6.5 (+105/-125)
There is a Western Conference tilt with the Central Division’s Chicago Blackhawks hosting the Pacific Division’s Vegas Golden Knights. These two teams are miles apart in what should be a lopsided affair.
At 5v5, Vegas ranks fifth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 10th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Meanwhile, the Hawks rank just 31st and 29th in those two categories.
The Golden Knights will also boast the goaltending advantage, with Logan Thompson slated to take the crease for Vegas. Through 20 starts this season, Thompson is 13-7 with a .917 SV% and 2.70 GAA.
Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 13th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, with the Knights sitting atop the Pacific Division while the Hawks have lost 12 of their last 13 games.
Of those 12 losses, 10 were by at least a two-goal margin. Going against the powerhouse Golden Knights should be no different for an organization that is tanking for Connor Bedard.
Best Bet: Golden Knights -1.5 (+125)
Philadelphia Flyers (+245) @ New Jersey Devils (-295) | O/U 6 (-115/-105)
There is a Metropolitan Division clash with the first-place New Jersey Devils hosting the seventh-place Philadelphia Flyers. While this Flyers team is a disaster, the one silver lining is the excellent play of goaltender Carter Hart.
Through 22 starts this season, Hart boasts a .909 SV% and 2.84 GAA. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 11th in GSAx/60 at 5v5.
However, Hart will once again likely fail to get strong goal support as Philadelphia ranks just 28th in the league in xGF/60 at 5v5. This team should especially struggle offensively, as the Devils boast one of the best blue lines in hockey.
At 5v5, New Jersey ranks second in the league in xGA/60 at 5v5. Backing up this elite defense is goaltender Vitek Vanecek.
Entering this contest, Vanecek is 12-2-2 with a .912 SV% and 2.39 GAA. While the Devils’ powerhouse offense is a threat to the under, Carter Hart should be able to suppress some of their scoring early on.
One or fewer 1P goals were scored in six of Philadelphia’s last seven games (one of which was against New Jersey), a trend that should continue in this matchup.
Best Bet: 1P Under 1.5 (+120)
Toronto Maple Leafs (-120) @ New York Rangers (+100) | O/U 6 (-115/-105)
In what is arguably the best game on Thursday’s slate, the Metropolitan Division’s New York Rangers host the Atlantic Division’s Toronto Maple Leafs. Fueled by Mitch Marner’s incredible point streak, the Maple Leafs enter this contest in dominant form as they have won four straight games and nine of their last 10.
This Toronto team feels and looks different than the ones of years past, particularly because the defense and goaltending are holding up their sides of the bargain. At 5v5, the Leafs rank ninth in xGA/60.
Goaltender Matt Murray has been excellent this season and is backing up this strong defense. Through 10 starts, he is 7-1-2 with a .926 SV% and 2.50 GAA.
Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue, as Murray ranks fifth among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5. Meanwhile, the offense is as dominant as you would expect, ranking eighth in the league in xGF/60 at 5v5.
Entering this game, the Rangers rank lower in xGF/60, xGA/60, and Shesterkin’s numbers fall short of Murray’s. Continue to ride the hot streak and back the Leafs to take care of business as short favorites.
Best Bet: Maple Leafs ML (-120)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.