Top 3 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (12/22)
We have a loaded eight-game slate of hockey on Thursday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my three best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Top 3 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (12/22)
Seattle Kraken (-120) @ Vancouver Canucks (+100) | O/U 6.5 (-105/-115)
There is a Pacific Division tilt with the sixth-place Vancouver Canucks hosting the third-place Seattle Kraken. Slated to take the crease for Vancouver is goaltender Spencer Martin, who should be an excellent fade candidate in this contest.
Through 17 appearances between the pipes this season, Martin possesses a .885 SV% and 3.60 GAA. Based on his metrics, positive regression is unlikely as Martin ranks fifth-to-last among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
It does not help Martin’s cause that the Canucks possess one of the worst blue lines in hockey. At 5-on-5, Vancouver ranks second-to-last in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
To make matters worse, this defense and goaltender are not likely to get much goal support as the Canucks rank just 25th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. On the other hand, the Kraken rank 17th in the league in xGF/60 and ninth in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
They also boast the advantage in the crease as goaltender Martin Jones is slated to get the start. While Jones has not been dominant by any means, both his surface level stats and underlying metrics are stronger than Martin’s.
With the better offense, defense, and goaltender, there should be no reason that Seattle does not take care of business in this matchup.
Best Bet: Kraken ML (-120)
Minnesota Wild (-160) @ San Jose Sharks (+135) | O/U 6 (-120/+100)
There is a Western Conference tilt with the Pacific Division’s San Jose Sharks hosting the Central Division’s Minnesota Wild. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, with the Wild winning 10 of their last 12 games and the Sharks losing 10 of their last 13.
These trends should continue in this matchup as goaltender James Reimer is slated to start between the pipes for San Jose. Through 18 starts this season, Reimer is 6-9-3 with a .903 SV% and 3.04 GAA.
Based on his metrics, further regression is expected for Reimer as he ranks fourth-to-last in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. In front of Reimer is a very poor squad that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both xGF/60 and xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
To make matters worse for a team that struggles to score, centerman Tomas Hertl will miss this contest due to his suspension for high-sticking Elias Lindholm last Sunday. Scoring is going to be tough to come by for this group without Hertl, especially considering that the Wild rank third in the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
Backing up Minnesota’s tremendous defense is backup goaltender Filip Gustavsson, who has been terrific in relief this season. Through 12 appearances between the pipes, Gustavsson is 7-4-1 with a .922 SV% and 2.30 GAA.
The price is generous for the Wild because they are on the second half of a back-to-back, but that should not matter against the Sharks and James Reimer.
Best Bet: Wild ML (-160)
Carolina Hurricanes (+105) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (-125) | O/U 5.5 (-115/-105)
In what is arguably the best game on Thursday’s slate, there is a Metropolitan Division tilt with the third-place Pittsburgh Penguins hosting the first-place Carolina Hurricanes. The Canes have won seven of the last nine meetings between these two clubs, a trend that should continue in this contest.
While these two teams are pretty even across the board, Carolina’s edge defensively could be the deciding factor in this game. At 5-on-5, the Canes rank first in the league in xGA/60 while the Penguins rank 12th.
Carolina is much deeper than Pittsburgh at the blue line, especially considering the absence of Penguins defenseman Jeff Petry. Backing up the Canes’ stellar defense is rookie netminder Pyotr Kochetkov, who has firmly cemented himself in the Calder Trophy race.
Through 15 appearances between the pipes this season, Kochetkov is 10-1-4 with a .928 SV% and 1.94 GAA. Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue as he ranks sixth among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.
Across his two starts against the Penguins this season, Kochetkov is 2-0 with an impeccable .930 SV% and 1.96 GAA. Meanwhile, goaltender Tristan Jarry is slated to get the start for Pittsburgh.
While Jarry has also been incredible this season, his underlying metrics are not nearly as strong. At 5-on-5, Jarry ranks 20th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60.
Regression could hit Jarry, especially against a Hurricanes team that has had his number across the last couple of seasons. Over his last four starts against Carolina, Jarry is 1-2-1 with a .899 SV% and 3.76 GAA.
These are two extremely strong teams, but the Canes are slightly better and have the edge at plus money.
Best Bet: Hurricanes ML (+105)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.