Top 3 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (11/3)
We have a loaded 13-game slate of hockey on Thursday with some great matchups as we enter the second month of the season. Below, I give out my three best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Montreal Canadiens (+175) @ Winnipeg Jets (-205) | O/U 6.5 (-105/-115)
The Central Division’s Winnipeg Jets host the Atlantic Division’s Montreal Canadiens in what should be a lower-scoring affair. The under has been a good bet for each club this season, as there have been six or fewer total goals scored in six of Montreal’s last nine games and in six of Winnipeg’s nine.
These trends should continue in this matchup that has seen six or fewer goals in four of the last five meetings. Both of these teams’ offenses have been underwhelming as they each rank in the bottom third of the league in Expected Goals For (xGF) per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5v5.
On top of poor offensive play, each starting goaltender enters this matchup in good form. Projected to take the crease for the Habs is Sam Montembeault, who is 2-1 with a .931 SV% and 2.32 GAA through three starts this season.
If he qualified, Montembeault would rank ninth among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. Across the ice, star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is projected to start between the pipes for Winnipeg.
Through seven starts this season, Hellebuyck is 4-2-1 with a .931 SV% and 2.41 GAA. At 5v5, he ranks second among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-115)
Anaheim Ducks (+140) @ Vancouver Canucks (-165) | O/U 6 (-115/-105)
We have a Pacific Division tilt as the Vancouver Canucks host the Anaheim Ducks. There are two bad defenses backed by two struggling goaltenders and a total that is set at a half-goal too low in this contest.
Both of these clubs enter this game ranking in the bottom third of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5. Goaltender John Gibson, who has gotten off to a bad start this year, is projected to take the crease for Anaheim.
Through eight outings, Gibson is 2-5-1 with a .888 SV% and 4.23 GAA. Across the ice, Thatcher Demko is slated to get the start for Vancouver.
Across his eight starts this season, Demko is 1-6-1 with a .876 SV% and 4.06 GAA. In his career against the Ducks, the Cancuks’ netminder is 1-2 with a .831 SV% and 4.56 GAA.
This total is set at six instead of 6.5 because both goaltenders are traditionally strong and will positively regress at some point. However, until they do, both are fade-worthy.
Best Bet: Over 6 (-115)
Boston Bruins (+105) @ New York Rangers (-125) | O/U 6 (-110/-110)
In what should be one of the best games on Thursday night, the Metropolitan Division’s New York Rangers host the Atlantic Division’s Boston Bruins. Both these teams enter this game in great form as the Bruins are riding a six-game win streak while the Rangers have also won three in a row.
I made this game as a pick ’em, so the value on Boston at plus money is too good to pass up. While the biggest hurdle for the Bruins will be going against Igor Shesterkin, their projected starting goaltender – Linus Ullmark – should be able to keep up with the reigning Vezina Trophy winner.
This season, Ullmark is 7-0 with a stellar .932 SV% and 2.20 GAA. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 12th in GSAx/60 at 5v5.
Over the last two seasons against New York, Ullmark is 3-0-1 with a .938 SV% and 1.94 GAA. The talent on both these teams is likely a wash while Ullmark is doing just as well as Shesterkin between the pipes, so give me Boston at plus money.
Best Bet: Bruins ML (+105)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.