NHL Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/19)
Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals is set to take place with the Vegas Golden Knights hosting the Dallas Stars. Below, I give out my best bet for this series-opening tilt.
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Today’s Best NHL Bets
Odds courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook
Dallas Stars (+108) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-129) | O/U 5.5 (-104/-118)
A big part of the Dallas Stars’ success during this postseason push has been the play of their elite blue line. Over their eight wins between the first two rounds, Dallas has allowed an average of just 1.75 goals per game.
Spearheaded by one of the best defensemen in the world, Miro Heiskanen, the Stars have been one of the toughest teams to find high-danger scoring chances against in the second half of the season. Since the Christmas break, at 5-on-5, Dallas ranks second in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
This elite defensive play has continued into the postseason as the Stars rank first among all playoff teams through the first two rounds in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Backing up this elite defense is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who put together another dominant campaign in 2023.
Through 62 appearances in the crease during the regular season, Oettinger posted a 37-11-11 record with a .919 save percentage (SV%) and 2.37 goals against average (GAA). Across the ice, Adin Hill is slated to start between the pipes for the Vegas Golden Knights.
Hill has been an unsung hero for the Knights since taking over the injured Laurent Brossoit against the Edmonton Oilers. Through five appearances in the crease this postseason, Hill is 3-1 with a commanding .934 SV% and 2.20 GAA.
His underlying metrics suggest that regression may not be in the cards, considering that he boasts +0.7 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. In front of Hill is a big and physical blue line that ranked 11th in the league this season in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
If Vegas was able to quell Edmonton’s offense last round, then they can do the same against Dallas.
Best Bet: Under 5.5 (-118)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.