NHL Playoffs Best Bets Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/20)

by Matt Barbato |
Apr 20, 2023

Underdogs reigned supreme in Tuesday nightâ€™s games, with every road team winning their opening games by at least two goals.

While that might come as a shock to some, it isnâ€™t all that stunning when you consider how competitive this season was. Aside from the dominant Boston Bruins, the rest of the playoff contenders were pretty closely matched. And Tuesday night proved this yearâ€™s postseason could be wide open.

The favorites will be seeking revenge Thursday night and looking to avoid falling into a disastrous 2-0 hole on home ice. Which home teams can we trust to bounce back? And are there any road dogs we should back? Here are my breakdowns and best bets for Thursdayâ€™s action.

Thursdayâ€™s Best NHL Playoffs Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Tampa Bay Lightning (+135) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-155) | Total 6

If you just looked at the Game 1 box score from a 7-3 Lightning win, youâ€™d assume the Lightning completely dominated the Maple Leafs. The analytics actually tell a different story.

Toronto controlled play at 5-on-5, owning nearly 60% of the puck possession. They also put up 26 scoring chances to Tampaâ€™s 18, as well as 15 high-danger scoring chances to Tampaâ€™s six.

Ultimately, Tampa still won the expected goals battle, 3.77-3.09, but itâ€™s clear the Bolts didnâ€™t dominate quite as much as the final score suggests. Tampa was boosted by four power-play goals despite posting just 1.38 expected goals on the man advantage.

However, I just donâ€™t trust this Maple Leafs team. And thatâ€™s especially true of goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who was dreadful in Game 1. According to MoneyPuck.com, Samsonov allowed three more goals than expected Tuesday night, and the eye test definitely backed that up.

Would it surprise me if Toronto came out with a fiery effort and evened this series up in impressive fashion? Not one bit. But am I willing to bet on that happening at this price? Absolutely not.

The pick: Pass, lean to the over

New York Rangers (+110) at New Jersey Devils (-130) | Total 5.5

The Rangers played a nearly perfect road playoff hockey game. They clogged the middle of the ice and frustrated an inexperienced Devils team that struggled to adjust to a more rugged postseason style of play. New Jersey thrives in scoring off the rush, but the Rangers did a tremendous job of stifling the neutral zone and limiting odd-man rush opportunities. Then, New York countered and capitalized on their scoring changes. And when the Devils did break through with a chance, Igor Shesterkin was there to slam the door shut.

While New Jerseyâ€™s Game 1 performance was frustrating, there is a reason for optimism. The advanced metrics suggest it was New Jersey that was actually the better team at 5-on-5 play. The Devils controlled possession at an impressive 65% clip and had 31 scoring chances to New Yorkâ€™s 17.

The difference came on the power play, where the Devils went 0-for-4 while the Rangers went 2-for-3.

The Game 2 odds are similar to where they closed for Game 1. And I wouldnâ€™t be surprised if the Rangers become a public underdog after the dominant result Tuesday night.

Sure, the Devils will lose the goaltending battle between Vitek Vanecek and Shesterkin. And Iâ€™m worried about New Jerseyâ€™s ability to adjust to the more sandpaper style of playoff hockey. But Iâ€™m willing to believe in New Jerseyâ€™s 5-on-5 metrics. The expected goal margin at 5-on-5 was 2.27-1.51 in New Jerseyâ€™s favor. However, the Rangers outscored the Devils 2-0 at even strength.

With slightly better goaltending and better power play execution, I trust the Devils to even up the series.

The pick: Devils (-130)

Seattle Kraken (+175) at Colorado Avalanche (-205) | Total 6

Are the defending champs on the ropes? Itâ€™s certainly possible. Unlike the two games we just discussed, the postgame analytics report did not shine favorably on the losing team in this Game 1. This game was pretty much graded at dead-even at 5-on-5, with Colorado winning the expected goals battle 2.55-2.19.

The biggest difference in the game was Kraken goalie Philipp Grubauer, who was dazzling in Game 1. Grubauer stopped 34 of 35 shots and posted the best Goals Saved Above Expected margin of all netminders through the first game of the playoffs with 2.7 goals saved above expectation.

While Grubauerâ€™s Game 1 performance was certainly impressive, itâ€™s likely an anomaly, as he ranked 62nd among goaltenders during the regular season with a -0.7 margin in that category.

But rather than backing Colorado as 2/1 favorites, Iâ€™m turning my attention to the total. I find it hard to believe Grubauer will hold the high-powered Avalanche to fewer than two goals throughout the rest of this series. And the Kraken is built to win games playing a frantic, high-scoring style. Itâ€™s also worth mentioning that these teams combined to go 0-for-5 on the power play, something I wouldnâ€™t expect going forward.

All of this points to value being on the over. I like it at 6, but FanDuel Sportsbook has it listed at 5.5 with the over juiced to -134.

The pick: Over 6 goals; wait to see if it dips to 5.5

Winnipeg Jets (+130) at Vegas Golden Knights (-150) | Total 5.5

Last but certainly not least, we have perhaps the most impressive performance of the first two days of playoff action. The eighth-seeded Winnipeg Jets dominated the top-seeded Golden Knights in Game 1. And this is the underdog Iâ€™d trust the most to replicate their Game 1 effort.

The Jets controlled the entire game and responded well after Vegas pulled within one goal late in the second period. While the expected goals margin at 5-on-5 was only 1.9-1.2 in favor of Winnipeg, this performance felt legitimate. The Golden Knights struggled mightily to generate scoring chances, posting just five high-danger opportunities at even strength.

I would certainly expect a stronger effort from the Knights on home ice in Game 2. But even if Vegas generates more opportunities, theyâ€™ll have to find a way to get them past Connor Hellebuyck, who is one of the sportâ€™s elite goaltenders. The Jets have enough talent to keep up with Vegasâ€™ depth, and possess the goaltending edge with Hellebuyck over the untrustworthy Laurent Brossoit. And if Vegas changes things up by putting Jonathan Quick in the crease, thatâ€™s even better. While Quick has the pedigree of a two-time Stanley Cup champion in L.A., his best days are behind him. Quick ranked 82nd out of 86 goalies who made at least five starts in goals saved above expected.

People forget Winnipeg was atop the Western Conference in the middle of the season, and it feels like theyâ€™re regaining that form at the right time. Iâ€™ll take the Jets at roughly the same price they closed at in Game 1.

The pick: Jets (+130)

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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