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NHL Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/27)

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We have a small slate of hockey on Thursday as three Game 5s are set to take place in the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Below, I give out my two best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate.

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Today’s Best NHL Bets

Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook

Tampa Bay Lightning (+133) @ Toronto Maple Leafs (-157) | O/U 6 (-148/+120)

The first round curse could come to an end tonight as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning with a 3-1 series lead. Goal scoring has certainly been a non-issue in this series thus far, with seven or more total goals scored in each of the first four games.

This trend is likely to continue as both of these clubs rely on their dynamite offenses. In the regular season, the Leafs finished seventh in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5 while the Bolts ranked eighth.

However, neither blue line has held up its end of the bargain. Despite making moves for Luke Schenn and Jake McCabe at the trade deadline, Toronto ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5 since the Christmas break.

Meanwhile, Tampa finished the regular season ranked just 19th in the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Both Andrei Vasilevskiy and Ilya Samsonov have put together tremendous campaigns, but there is only so much they can do in a matchup with two elite offenses and two leaky blue lines.

Best Bet: Over 6 Total Goals (-148)

New York Rangers (+102) @ New Jersey Devils (-120) | O/U 5.5 (+107/-130)

After the road team claimed each of the first four contests in this series, the New Jersey Devils host the New York Rangers in Game 5. However, this trend could break considering that the Devils are finally figuring things out after a slow start to the series.

The Rangers continue to rely on goaltending and special teams, which is typically a recipe for failure down the stretch if the team is not as competent at even strength. At 5-on-5 since the Christmas break, New York ranks just 22nd in xGF/60 and 23rd in xGA/60.

New York’s underwhelming play at even strength has continued into the postseason, with roughly half of their goals coming at 5-on-5 over the first four games. Meanwhile, New Jersey ranked third in xGF/60 and ninth in xGA/60 at 5-on-5 during the regular season, ranking 19 and six spots ahead of the Rangers in those categories, respectively.

The switch to rookie goaltender Akira Schmid seemed to be exactly the kick-start this team needed after falling behind 2-0 in the series, as the Devils have now rattled off two straight wins. Look for them to close out the series strong over the weekend.

Best Bet: Devils Moneyline (-120)

Best of luck!

Check out the other best bets for Thursday:

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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