NHL Playoffs Odds & Picks: Monday (4/29)
It is one of the more exciting times of the year: the Stanley Cup playoffs. What makes the NHL have such a special playoff run is that sometimes, the best team doesn’t always win. We have two games, and we’ll look at the best bets for each.
Monday’s NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Lightning (+154) at Florida Panthers (-185) | O/U 6.5 (-105/-115)
The Lightning held off being eliminated for at least one game and got the win in Game 4. This looked like a team that went to three straight Stanley Cup Finals and won two. They started off quickly with three goals in the first period, and although Florida pulled within a goal, Tampa Bay would extend that lead in the third. The return of Mikhail Sergachev was massive after he suffered a broken leg in February as he came through with an assist.
This was an overall sloppy game for the Panthers. The blue line was letting Tampa Bay get the puck to the crease, not pressuring them in the neutral zone, and letting them get clean passes and optimal shot opportunities. You almost felt like they knew they had a game to play with, and they knew the next game was at home.
You don’t want to give a team like the Lightning any life. They will make this game interesting, and the offense should look as good as it did in Game 4. They still have problems on the blue line that the Panthers have been able to exploit.
Pick: Over 6.5 Total Goals (-105)
Dallas Stars (-118) at Vegas Golden Knight (-102) | O/U 6 (+105/-125)
The Stars prevented themselves from going down 0-3 and came up with the overtime victory. Although Vegas has the series advantage, the Stars have been playing up to par; they have a playoff-best 70.77% expected goal share and 3.36 expected goals per 60; both numbers are better than Vegas.
Despite the metrics saying they’ve been outplayed, the Golden Knights always find a way to be competitive. After facing a 2-0 deficit in Game 3, Vegas was able to crawl back and tie this game and got to overtime. Logan Thompson has been excellent through this series, with 4.8 goals saved above expected with a .927 save percentage, and they still have Adin Hill as a backup. The offense has been their weak point, with just Jack Eichel averaging a point per game and some guys struggling, like Mark Stone, who hasn’t recorded a point since the first two minutes of the series.
This is a series where you shouldn’t be shocked if Dallas gets on a run or Vegas completely shuts down Dallas’ momentum. What we are seeing is the defense play on both sides and keeping the totals low.
Pick: Under 6 Total Goals (-125)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: