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NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/17)

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The Stanley Cup Playoffs are here! The 2023 postseason opens up tonight with a quartet of games featuring two in the Eastern Conference and two in the Western Conference. There are a ton of different ways to bet on the playoffs, from the futures market and series prices to individual games and player props. Tonight I'm taking it to the prop sheet and locking in these three player props. 

NHL '22-'23 Record: 22-38 (-18.78 Units)

Today's Best NHL Player Props

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

David Pastrnak Over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-150)

The Stanley Cup favorite Boston Bruins (+330) are in action tonight, hosting the Florida Panthers. This first-round showdown is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the TD Garden in Boston, MA. 

They say, "Big-time players make big-time plays," and in order to make big-time plays in hockey, you need to put pucks on net. So I'll back the best player in this specific game (and arguably the whole league aside from Connor McDavid) to hit his over with shots on goal.

If this seems like an elevated number, that's because it is. 4.5 shots is the highest "shots on goal" prop available tonight across all four games. However, Pastrnak is no stranger to shooting the puck. He led the NHL in shots on goal this season, registering 407 over 82 games. To put that into perspective, the next closest was Nathan MacKinnon at 358. 

“Pasta” recorded 44 shots over the final seven games of the season and blew past this number in five of those games. Finally, it's worth noting that the Panthers allowed the 11th-most shots in the league this season (2,604). With their "loosey-goosey" style of play, I think Pastrnak clears 4.5 shots on goal comfortably. 

Connor McDavid Under 1.5 Points (+135)

Speaking of Connor McDavid, his Oilers will host the Kings tonight in the first game of their Pacific Division series. This one gets underway at 10:00 p.m. ET from Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. 

Am I crazy for taking an under on a McDavid point total? Potentially. But, the numbers are there to make a case for the plus-money payout that comes with the risk. The star centerman was on pace for a historic season, and while his 153 points (64G, 89A) were the most since Nikita Kucherov's 128 (41G, 87A) in 2018-2019 and Leon Draisaitl's 128 (52G, 76A) this year, he slowed down toward the end of the season. 

Over his final seven games, McDavid scored just 10 points (3G, 7A). While any other player would take those numbers in a heartbeat, it was an underperformance compared to his typical numbers - especially considering you're oftentimes laying substantial juice for him to hit two points per game at every sportsbook. 

Included in that final seven-game stretch were two matchups with the Kings. He was held to one point in each contest, scoring a goal and adding an assist. Maybe I'll look foolish when the dust settles tonight, but I think it's worth a shot with the plus-money payout that comes with the under. 

Drew Doughty Under 0.5 Points (-115)

Keeping it in the same game, I'll lock in the under on Drew Doughty's point total. The defenseman notched just four points (1G, 3A) over his final nine games and was held off the score sheet in six of them. That includes the two matchups against the Oilers, where he was shut out despite logging 58:14 of ice time. 

I never thought I'd see the day when I'd say that Edmonton is playing respectable defense. Typically, they've been a run-and-gun team where they try to outpace their opponents 6-5. That hasn't been the case as of late, considering the Oilers gave up just six goals over their final seven games (0.85 GAA). With the way things are trending, I'd say there's a solid chance that Doughty goes pointless in the series opener.

Check out our other best bets for Monday:

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