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NHL Playoffs Same-Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/21)

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The NHL playoffs have given us a bit of everything through the first four days. Overtime classics, blowouts, and a ton of storylines.

As the first week of the first round concludes, only two series sit at 2-0, and the only one that feels destined to end early is the series between the New York Rangers and the New Jersey Devils. But who’s complaining about more exciting hockey? I hope all of these series go the distance.

That said, let’s look into Friday’s Game 3s and find some same-game parlay winners.

Friday’s Best NHL Same Game Parlay Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook 

Carolina Hurricanes (+105) at New York Islanders (-125) | Total 5

  • Leg 1 – Islanders -125
  • Leg 2 – Over 4.5 goals
  • Leg 3 – Bo Horvat anytime goalscorer
  • Odds: +400

This is the other series currently at Carolina, leading 2-0. However, this series has been much tighter than the aforementioned Hudson River Rivalry.

In Game 2, Carolina received a ridiculous carom off an Isles player for a goal and was granted six power plays, and they still needed overtime to take down New York. And I don’t think we need to speak more about the controversial missed call that led to Carolina’s game-winning goal.

The Islanders looked like the better team in Game 2, and the analytics back that up. New York had an expected goals margin of 2.65-1.41 at 5-on-5 play. They also racked up 14 high-danger chances and held Carolina to merely five such opportunities.

Coming home in virtually a must-win scenario, I expect maximum effort from the Islanders, a rabid home crowd, and hopefully a friendlier whistle on home ice.

Granted, the Islanders can occasionally look broken offensively. But it felt like they had a breakthrough in Game 2. They can dictate matchups better at home and free up some of their top scorers.

This will likely be another tight contest, but I like the Islanders to keep the series alive, and I think Horvat will break through for a goal after a quiet start to the series.

Boston Bruins (-155) at Florida Panthers (+135) | Total 6 

    • Leg 1 – Bruins -155
    • Leg 2 – Bruins first goal of the game
    • Leg 3 – Sam Bennett anytime goalscorer
    • Odds: +800

I had been on Florida +1.5 in Game 1, then moneyline in Game 2, and the Panthers paid off for me handsomely the last time out. However, this feels like the time to buy on Boston.

Boston played arguably its worst game of a record-setting season Wednesday night, coughing up 15 giveaways, several of which led to Panthers goals. Everyone just seemed off in Boston, especially goaltender Linus Ullmark. While the B’s lost the expected goals battle, too, they only lost by a 2.32-1.84 margin at even strength. Boston also controlled possession and scoring chances.

The potential absence of Patrice Bergeron to a mysterious injury worries me considerably. Bergeron skated Thursday independently, but his status is still up in the air. Regardless, I suspect Boston will bring a much tighter effort on the road. They’re still the more complete team and should have the goaltending edge if Ullmark bounces back. While this might not be a pro-Boston crowd, I expect plenty of New England-area transplants in the stands to negate the home-ice advantage.

I expect Boston to respond with a fiery effort out of the gates, therefore, I’ll take the Bruins to win the game and score first in this SGP. Lastly, Sam Bennett played a huge role in Game 2 after missing Game 1 with an injury, and I suspect he’ll continue to be a thorn in Boston’s side throughout this series.

Dallas Stars (-115) at Minnesota Wild (-105) | Total 5.5

    • Leg 1 – Wild +1.5
    • Leg 2 – Matthew Boldy anytime goalscorer
    • Leg 3 – Wyatt Johnston anytime goalscorer
    • Odds: +1100

If I had to choose a series I felt most confident would go seven games, it’s this one. And while I am not a complete disciple of the zig-zag theory, this series feels like the one most likely to play out in such fashion.

In Game 1, Minnesota brought the energy and found a way to win in overtime. In Game 2, Dallas responded on home ice with a dominant effort. The Wild also suspiciously swapped goaltenders in Game 2 after Filip Gustavsson put up 51 saves in the double OT win in Game 1. Minnesota went with veteran Marc-Andre Fleury, and the results were disastrous, as Fleury gave up seven goals on 31 shots in Game 2.

I assure you Gustavsson will be rightfully back between the pipes in Game 3, which should help. The question is whether Minnesota can better contain Dallas on home ice. And I actually think they can.

While I have concerns about Minnesota’s center depth, they will be better able to dictate matchups at Xcel Energy Center Friday night. What’s also fascinating is that while Dallas won in deserved fashion Wednesday, the metrics suggest the margin was a bit bloated. Regarding expected goals, Dallas only won the game 3.17-3.02.

Expected goals are far from gospel, but it’s a good reminder not to overreact to one result. The metrics also suggest Dallas has been the better team at 5-on-5 through the first two games.

All this is to say I don’t love an angle on this game. So for this SGP, I will take the Wild to keep this game within two goals, an outcome I feel relatively confident about. To help juice this parlay up a bit, I’ll add a couple of goal scorers from each side. Boldy leads the Wild with 14 shots but hasn’t quite broken through to light the lamp, and I’ll bet on him getting that done in Game 3. On the Dallas side, I’ll go with Wyatt Johnston, who’s led the team with 12 shots on net in the series.

Edmonton Oilers (-150) at Los Angeles Kings (+130) | Total 6.5

    • Leg 1 – Under 6.5 goals
    • Leg 2 – Edmonton first goal
    • Leg 3 â€“ Connor McDavid anytime goalscorer
    • Odds: +450

This is another tricky Game 3 to assess. Game 2 of this series played out almost identically to Game 1. The Oilers jumped out to a 2-o lead and surrendered said lead in the second period. But this time, Edmonton showed some resiliency by taking the lead early in the third period and holding onto it on home ice.

My impression through the first two games has been that Edmonton is the superior team. The analytics back that hypothesis up, as Edmonton has a considerable edge in expected goals at 5-on-5.

Yet, the Kings have found a way to hang around just long enough and have controlled play late in both games. And that’s why I have a hard time fading them. Los Angeles also has the goaltending edge, with Joonas Korpisalo looking sharp in both games.

I’m going to sit out the side on this game. Instead, I’ll once again ride the under. Had Los Angeles not scored a miraculous goal late in Game 1, both would’ve gone under the total. And while Game 2 was undoubtedly a sweat for any under bettors, both games didn’t look like high-flying affairs undermined by great goaltending. This series has been fast-paced but also tight and physical.

I will keep riding the narrative of Edmonton starting these games fast, as it seems the Kings are content to settle in and adjust as the game goes on. So I will add Edmonton to score the first goal to this parlay.

Lastly, you can call me captain chalk, but I’d have to think Connor McDavid finally breaks through with a goal after registering just one point through the first two games.

Check out our other best bets for Friday:

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