Navigate

NHL Playoffs Same-Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/28)

by |

The first round of the 2023 NHL playoffs has definitely delivered. As of Friday, only one series (Vegas and Winnipeg) has ended, with seven Game 6s scheduled for what’s sure to be a busy weekend of hockey.

Let’s dig into Friday’s Game 6s with my same-game parlay picks.

Friday’s Best NHL Same Game Parlays

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Carolina Hurricanes (+100) at New York Islanders (-120) | Total 5.5

    • Leg 1: Carolina +100
    • Leg 2: Under 5.5 goals
    • Leg 3: Brent Burns anytime goalscorer
    • Odds: +1100

The Islanders brought the series back home in a 3-2 victory in Raleigh in Game 5. But it’s safe to say New York was a little fortunate to keep the series alive. Isles fans won’t complain, though, as they’d argue their team was probably due for some good fortune in this series.

That being said, Carolina pretty much dominated at 5-on-5 play, holding 63% of possession, doubling New York in scoring chances and out-shooting the Islanders 36-22. The difference came down to special teams and goaltending. The Canes went 0-for-4 on the power play, and Ilya Sorokin stood on his head in the win. Sorokin let in two goals on 36 shots, despite being expected to give up 3.95 goals, according to MoneyPuck.com.

Game 5 was an example of the difference an elite goaltender can make in an already tight series. Sorokin could easily steal another game and send this series to a seventh game. But I suspect Carolina will be able to drive play and convert on more chances in Game 6.

This series has been tight the whole way, so another 3-2 game feels on the horizon. For my goal scorer prop, I’ll go a little bolder and take Brent Burns, who hasn’t scored a goal despite leading the team with 22 shots in the series. Carolina will need to pepper pucks on Sorokin, and it starts with Burns shooting from the point.

Boston Bruins (-175) at Florida Panthers (+150) | Total 6.5

    • Leg 1: Bruins -175
    • Leg 2: Bruins first team to score (-140)
    • Leg 3: David Pastrnak anytime goalscorer
    • Odds: +225

The Bruins just can’t seem to put the pesky Panthers away. However, a deeper look into the Game 5 loss on home ice gives me confidence in the B’s taking care of business in Game 6.

Boston was the overwhelmingly better team at 5-on-5 in Game 5. Boston held nearly 65% of the puck possession, posted 38 scoring chances, and doubled Florida in high-danger chances by a 15-7 margin. The Bruins won the expected goals battle 3.1-1.79, but the script was flipped in reality, with Boston getting outscored 3-1 in 5-on-5 play.

Once again, goaltending wound up being the difference. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 1.52 goals above expected and was the real MVP for Florida. Meanwhile, Linus Ullmark had a tough night, including a misplayed puck behind his net that led to Matthew Tkachuk’s game-winning goal in overtime. While some fans may call for Ullmark to sit, the likely Vezina Trophy winner still ranks third in goals saved above expected in the postseason. I’d expect a better effort from him in the crease Friday night.

Boston’s turnover issues reared their ugly head in Game 5, as the B’s gave the puck away 17 times. Boston played a similarly sloppy game at home in Game 2 and bounced back with a dominant win in Game 3 on the road. I’m expecting a similar script here and think Boston closes this one out tonight.

Dallas Stars (-105) at Minnesota Wild (-115) | Total 5.5

    • Leg 1: Minnesota -115
    • Leg 2: Under 5.5 goals
    • Leg 3: Kirill Kaprizov anytime goalscorer
    • Odds: +525

The Stars have their Central Division counterparts on the ropes. After falling behind 2-1 in the series, Dallas has put together two impressive efforts to seize back control of the series. But once again, the final score of Game 5 and the metrics tell completely different stories.

Dallas won Game 5 on home ice 4-0. They jumped out early and never looked back. However, the analytics suggest Minnesota deserved a whole lot better. At NaturalStatTrick.com, the Wild won the 5-on-5 expected goals battle 1.46-0.92. On MoneyPuck, the Wild were expected to win 1.27-0.89 at 5-on-5.

Now, none of this is to suggest that Minnesota was robbed or unlucky. They played an incredibly sloppy game that included 27 penalty minutes, and it burnt them. But it’s worth considering when taking into account how the game played out.

The question is whether Minnesota can crack Jake Oettinger, who has allowed two goals on 61 shots in Games 4 and 5. The Wild just might not lack the forward depth to compete with Dallas’ bevy of scorers. However, the Wild have still been the slightly better team at 5-on-5 play in the series. If they can just play disciplined and get some timely conversions, there’s no reason to believe they can’t send this series to Game 7, which is how this series has felt all along.

The Wild burnt me the last time I backed them in Game 5, but I will trust them on home ice to play a tighter game. For that reason, I also really like adding the under to this SGP. It helps that Oettinger and Filip Gustavsson have been two of the best goalies in the postseason.

Finally, I think it’s time for Kirill Kaprizov to step up on home ice and light the lamp.

Colorado Avalanche (-155) at Seattle Kraken (+135) | Total 5.5

    • Leg 1: Kraken +135
    • Leg 2: Over 5.5 goals
    • Leg 3: Nathan MacKinnon anytime goalscorer
    • Odds: +700

The defending Stanley Cup champions are officially on thin ice after falling at home to Seattle. And while it might be jarring to see the champs on the brink of elimination, it’s far from a fluke. Now, Seattle will get a chance to close out the franchise’s first playoff series win on home ice.

The Kraken dominated Colorado at Ball Arena in Game 5. They held nearly 60% of possession and held the Avs to just six high-danger chances at 5-on-5. That is extremely impressive, even with the caveat of Cale Makar’s absence due to suspension.

Colorado’s forward depth has come into question in this series, as the upstart Kraken has managed to keep up. And amazingly, Seattle has been the deserving team in this series.

The question will be whether the return of Makar plus a maximum effort from the champs will be enough to send this series back to Denver. Honestly, I’m not sure it is. The only consistently dominant line for Colorado has been Nathan MacKinnon’s line. But the Kraken have kept up and controlled play down the rest of the lineup.

Kraken netminder Philipp Grubauer has continued to deliver against his former team, while Avalanche goalie Alexander Georgiev has been fine but hasn’t done enough in net.

While this is the game I’d be most likely to sit out, at this price, it’s Kraken or nothing for me.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App