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NHL Playoffs Same-Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/12)

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I have to admit, the second round of the 2023 NHL playoffs have been bizarre, and borderline unentertaining. This tends to happen after teams make it through a grueling first round. But when teams alternate blowouts, it makes our task of handicapping these games much tougher.

That being said, here are my same-game parlay picks for Friday’s two-pack of Game 5’s.

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Today’s Best NHL Same Game Parlay Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Florida Panthers (+140) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-170), Total 6.5

  • Leg 1: Panthers +140
  • Leg 2: Under 6.5
  • Leg 3: William Nylander anytime goalscorer
  • Odds: +1800

This series has been the best of the bunch so far, and it has the chance to be the first one to end. Toronto kept their season alive for at least a couple more days with a gritty 2-1 victory on the road. That game was as tight as it looked, with Toronto holding a very slight advantage in expected goals at 5-on-5 play.

The biggest question entering Game 4 was how Maple Leafs netminder Joseph Woll would perform in his first postseason start in relief of the injured Ilya Samsonov. Woll performed well, stopping 24-of-25 shots and posting a +2.02 goals saved above expected. Woll was more than steady. He might have kept Toronto’s season alive with some huge saves.

Scoring chances were at a premium in Game 4, with both teams combining for just 36 scoring chances and 19 high-danger opportunities. We could see Toronto play a similarly tighter style in Game 5 in an attempt to protect its inexperienced goalie.

The question is whether I feel comfortable enough to back the team down 3-1 laying this much juice. While it wouldn’t stun me if the Leafs sent this to a Game 6, I can’t justify the price. It’s Panthers or nothing for me from a side standpoint. Florida and Toronto have been too even at 5-on-5 to justify laying -170 on the Leafs; plus, I trust Sergei Bobrovsky more than I do Woll in what’ll be a pressure cooker environment on home ice.

As for the total, I do think there’s value on the under because of how drastically different Game 4 played.

Edmonton Oilers (-125) at Vegas Golden Knights (+105), Total 6.5

  • Leg 1: Vegas +105
  • Leg 2: Over 6.5 goals
  • Leg 3: Jack Eichel anytime goalscorer
  • Leg 4: Leon Draisaitl anytime goalscorer
  • Odds: +700

This series has been as unpredictable as any this entire postseason. Although, maybe simplifying our approach and utilizing the “zig-zag” theory might be best. These two teams have traded blowouts, with Vegas taking Games 1 and 3 and Edmonton taking Games 2 and 4. If we use that logic, Vegas is the obvious choice.

This series is filled with so many variables. In just a four-game sample, we’ve seen Edmonton play to its extremely high ceiling and its extremely low floor. Neither team has a goaltender you can trust. And while Vegas has the deeper, more well-rounded lineup, all it takes is a few trips to the penalty box for Edmonton’s dynamic duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to put the game out of reach.

A look at the series analytics suggests Vegas has been the slightly better team at 5-on-5 play, but not by an overwhelming margin. There’s no clear answer when betting on this series on a game-to-game basis.

To top it off, both teams will have key defensemen out of action, as Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse and Vegas’ Alex Pietrangelo were both suspended for late-game hi-jinks last time out. Oh, and the Golden Knights could turn to veteran Jonathan Quick between the pipes. You may see Quick’s name and think he’s the best choice, but Quick hasn’t played in a month and has posted the fifth-worst goals saved above expected mark in the entire league.

One potentially underrated factor will be whether the officials call the game more loosely as the series goes deeper. We’ve sometimes seen officials put their whistles away as a series transpires. And if the refs let things go more often, that obviously favors the Golden Knights, who have given up six of their 14 goals allowed on the penalty kill.

Granted, a bet on Vegas is a prayer that whoever starts between the pipes won’t wet the bed. But the series analytics combined with the price results in a slight lean to the home underdog.

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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