NHL Playoffs Same-Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/17)

by Matt Barbato |
Apr 16, 2023

The 2023 NHL playoffs get underway on Monday. And there may not be a more intense postseason than the quest for the Stanley Cup.

This yearâ€™s postseason should be highly entertaining. The Eastern Conference is headlined by the Boston Bruins, but the conference is loaded with contenders. The West isnâ€™t nearly as stacked, but the conference is truly wide open.

Iâ€™ll be providing my same-game parlay picks throughout the entire Stanley Cup playoffs. Letâ€™s get into my SGP picks for each game on Mondayâ€™s slate. Keep in mind, player props had not hit the market as of writing.

Mondayâ€™s Best NHL Playoffs Same Game Parlay Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Islanders (+150) at Carolina Hurricanes (-165) | Total 5.5

- Leg 1: Under 5.5 goals
- Leg 2: Ilya Sorokin over saves
- Leg 3: Brent Burns over shots on goal

The Hurricanes tilt the ice and control play at a high level. They led the NHL in both Corsi For Percentage (which gauges a teamâ€™s ability to control possession) and Expected Goals For Percentage at 5-on-5 play.

The Canes are built to pepper opposing goalies with shots. However, this high-volume approach doesnâ€™t always pay off, as the Hurricanes struggle to finish at times. Carolina ranked 28th in shooting percentage at 5-on-5 this season and converted just 6% of their shots during the last 10 games of the season.

Putting the puck in the net has been even harder for Carolina since they lost Andrei Svechnikov to a season-ending injury. The winger was third in goals on the team, and the Hurricanes have struggled to replace his production down the stretch.

This series will be a tricky one for the Hurricanes. The Islanders donâ€™t feature a ton of offensive firepower, but they have the ultimate equalizer in goaltender Ilya Sorokin. Given Carolinaâ€™s tendency to put pucks on net, Iâ€™d expect Sorokin to save at least 30 pucks in Game 1, something he did twice in four outings against the Hurricanes this year.

While weâ€™re still awaiting player props, I would take Brett Burns to go over his shots total. The defenseman led the Canes in shots, and Iâ€™d take his over prop at 2.5 or better.

My favorite play in this game is the under for the reasons mentioned above. The Canes struggle to convert and are facing an elite goaltender in Sorokin. Meanwhile, New York will play a tight, defensive style and hope to be opportunistic when the puckâ€™s in their end.

Florida Panthers (+185) at Boston Bruins (-215) | Total 6

- Leg 1: Panthers +1.5 (-145)
- Leg 2: Matthew Tkachuk over 0.5 points
- Leg 3: Patrice Bergeron anytime goal scorer

While the Bruins set records for wins and points during the regular season, Iâ€™m wondering if theyâ€™re entering this series a bit overvalued. In fact, the analytics suggest Florida was the better team at 5-on-5.

Florida finished third in Corsi For% and fifth in xGF% at 5-on-5 play during the regular season, while Boston finished 15th and eighth in those respective categories. Iâ€™m not saying the Bruins are overrated by any stretch. They have a loaded lineup led by David Pastrnakâ€™s 61 goals. They also benefitted from the leagueâ€™s best goaltending and likely Vezina Trophy winner, Linus Ullmark.

But I think the Panthers are up for the task. They also possess a deep roster of top-end talent and are playing their best hockey down the stretch. My concern is whether goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky can hold up his end of the bargain. Bobrovsky went 0-1 against the Bruins, allowing four goals on 33 shots. If Bobrovsky isnâ€™t on, the Panthers could go home early.

But if Bobrovsky delivers above-average goaltending, I suspect the Panthers could make this a series. If you want to go bolder, I donâ€™t hate a play on the Panthers straight up.

As for props, Tkachuk recorded five points in four games against the Bruins, so I trust him to get on the scoresheet in Game 1. Bergeron feels like a good bet to score a goal as well after scoring three times against the Panthers this year.

Minnesota Wild (+120) at Dallas Stars (-140) | Total 5.5

- Leg 1: Under 5.5
- Leg 2: Under 1.5 goals first period
- Leg 3: Filip Gustavsson over saves
- Leg 4: Jake Oettinger over saves

This series has the potential to be one of the lowest-scoring Round 1 matchups. The Wild are a team Iâ€™ve been fading down the stretch, but I was hoping for a better matchup to exploit than their Central Division foes.

Minnesota should be healthier after a slew of injuries struck late in the year. And if Kirill Kaprizov is healthy, heâ€™s capable of singlehandedly carrying the Wild to a win. But Minnesota doesnâ€™t have a whole lot of firepower aside from him, Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek. Minnesota has skated to a sub-50% Corsi Percentage and has an xGF% of 44.3% over its last 10 games. The injuries have mattered, but the Wild hadnâ€™t been playing great hockey down the stretch.

Dallas is a slightly better version of Minnesota. They have a handful of high-end scorers and playmakers and a top goaltender. But they donâ€™t have a ton of depth beyond their headliners. The Stars have done a better job at 5-on-5 throughout the year.

The key to Game 1, and perhaps this series, could be the goaltending battle. Filip Gustavsson has emerged as one of the leagueâ€™s top emerging goalies, and he finished seventh in the league in goals saved above expectation. Heâ€™ll match up with Dallasâ€™ Jake Oettinger, who finished 12th in that category.

Goals should be few and far to come by in Game 1, which is why Iâ€™m taking both the game and first-period unders. Iâ€™m also backing both goalies to have strong games. Gustavsson stopped 62 of 66 shots in two games vs. Dallas, while Oettinger stopped 104 of 111 shots in four starts against the Wild.

If youâ€™re looking to bet a side, I would take Dallas in Game 1.

Los Angeles Kings (+165) at Edmonton Oilers (-195), Total 6.5

- Leg 1: Los Angeles +165
- Leg 2: Leon Draisaitl over 0.5 points
- Leg 3: Viktor Arvidsson anytime goal scorer

We could have some fireworks to conclude the opening night of the playoffs. The Oilers ended the year on an incredible run, going 13-0-1 down the stretch. The Kings cooled off after a red-hot stretch of play in March. However, I like the underdogs to pull off the upset in Game 1.

While the Oilers finished the season on a stronger note than L.A., the metrics suggest these teams played more similarly to each other down the stretch than the wins and losses columns would suggest. Just take a look at the goals for and expected goals for percentages at 5-on-5 during the final 10 games.

Edmonton: 64.86% goals for, expected goals for % of 54.19%
Los Angeles: 43.33% goals for, expected goals for % of 51.23%

Regression could be coming for both sides in the postseason. For that reason, I believe the Kings have a better chance to win this game than the implied 37.7% chance the oddsmakers give them. Iâ€™d peg this as closer to a tossup. While Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are studs, I still canâ€™t buy into the rest of this roster stepping up in support. And Iâ€™m skeptical of goaltender Stuart Skinner.

The Kings donâ€™t have anything close to a McDavid or Draisaitl, but they have a well-rounded roster and the better goalie in Joonas Korpisalo, who was acquired at the deadline.

That being said, I do like Draisaitl to tally a point in Game 1, as he had four points in four regular season contests. I also like the Kingsâ€™ left wing Arvidsson to light the lamp after he scored twice against Edmonton this year.

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