NHL Playoffs Same-Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Saturday (April 29)
We’ve got a trio of Game 6s on the menu for Saturday night, so let’s not waste anytime. Here are my same-game parlay picks for tonight’s action.
Best NHL Playoffs Same Game Parlay
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Toronto Maple Leafs (-110) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) | Total 6.5
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- Leg 1: Lightning -110
- Leg 2: Over 6.5
- Leg 3: Nikita Kucherov anytime goalscorer
- Odds: +500
When the Maple Leafs won Game 4 to go up 3-1 in the series, I half-jokingly said that the Lightning had the Leafs right where they wanted them. Well, Toronto couldn’t close the two-time champs out at home. Now, they’ll look to try and end the series at Amalie Arena, where they took both Games 3 and 4 in overtime.
Tampa was the deserving winner of Game 5, holding nearly 60% of the possession at 5-on-5 and creating far more scoring chances. The Lightning also finally received an on-brand performance from goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who posted 1.81 goals saved above expected in the victory.
Coming back home, I like Tampa to extend this to a seventh game. Come on, we all felt it was headed that way when the series was official, right? The Bolts have been the slightly better team at 5-on-5 in this series, and it seems like Vasilevskiy saves his best playoff performances for the back end of these series. While I don’t let narratives dictate my betting, I’m willing to make the Leafs show me they can close out a series.
I also like this game to go over. Throw out Minnesota’s Marc-Andre Fleury, who started one game in the postseason, and Vasilevskiy and Ilya Samsonov have been the two worst goalies in the postseason in terms of goals saved above expectation.
New Jersey Devils (+110) at New York Rangers (-135) | Total 5.5
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- Leg 1: Rangers -135
- Leg 2: Over 5.5
- Leg 3: Mika Zibanejad anytime goalscorer
- Leg 4: Artemi Panarin anytime goalscorer
- Odds: +1000
This series has been completely flipped on its head. Just a week ago, it seemed the Rangers were poised to dispose of the Devils in a sweep, maybe five games if they were feeling generous. Now, New York is on the brink of elimination on home ice. It’s been a stunning turn of events, as the young Devils have completely flipped the script on the veteran Rangers.
In Games 1 and 2, the Rangers played a passive style and sought counterattack opportunities off Devils’ mistakes on the rush. In Games 3-5, the Devils have tightened up their play and are playing a far more passive style.
The biggest difference in the series has probably been netminder Akira Schmid, who has been elite in his first three career playoff starts. Schmid has allowed just two goals on 82 shots and ranks second among all goalies with a +5 goals saved above expected mark in the postseason.
The only goalie better than Schmid through the first round has been Rangers netminder Igor Shesterkin. And he’s about the only good thing the Rangers have going right now. Shesterkin is plenty capable of stealing a game, and that may be necessary given how poorly New York has played in front of him.
In fact, it’s borderline criminal how bad New York has played, considering the star power that runs up and down their lineup. That’s an indictment on coach Gerard Gallant, who deserves to be on the hot seat if this team can’t get past the first round.
This has been a really difficult series to get a feel for. It feels like the moment we think one team is in control is when the series flips back to the other side. With their season on the brink, New York can’t afford to be passive.
I’m also skeptical of Schmid keeping up this heroic play, especially in a closeout situation on the road. Shesterkin has a track record of big playoff performances; I’ll pay to see it from Schmid. Give me New York, as I’d be surprised to see the inexperienced Devils finish the job the first time around.
I also think we’ll see this game break through with an over. Assuming New York plays more aggressively, that could open up more chances off the rush for the Devils, which is where they thrive. Finally, I think we see Zibanejad and Panarin break through with goals tonight.
Edmonton Oilers (-170) at Los Angeles Kings (+135) | Total 6.5
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- Leg 1: Kings +135
- Leg 2: Under 6.5 goals
- Leg 3: Kevin Fiala anytime goalscorer
- Odds: +1000
Game 5 between the Oilers and Kings is another classic example of how the final score and the analytics can tell entirely different tales. Edmonton defeated Los Angeles handily at home Tuesday night, 6-3. However, the metrics suggest this game was closer than the final score indicates. Los Angeles still lost the 5-on-5 expected goals battle, but only by a margin of 2.01-1.76. In reality, the Oilers outscored Los Angeles 4-3 at 5-on-5.
After a spectacular start to this series, Joonas Korpisalo got the hook midway through the Game 5 loss after allowing four goals on just 15 shots. Korpisalo will surely get back in the crease for Game 6, and I trust him to bounce back from his off night.
What’s scary for the Kings is that Edmonton finally got some production from its depth forwards. Of course, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combined for three points in the win despite being a combined -3 for the night in the plus/minus department. However, Nick Bjugstad scored twice, and Zach Hyman and Evander Kane also lit the lamp. When Edmonton can get guys not named McDavid or Draisaitl to start producing, they become really hard to beat.
What makes this game tricky to handicap is the special teams units. The Oilers’ power play is insane right now. They’ve scored eight goals on the man advantage and have converted on 57% of their power plays. And it’s hard to trust the Kings to stay out of the box. In this series, L.A. has committed fewer than three penalties in just one game.
Projecting penalties is nearly impossible, but in an elimination game, I would expect a more disciplined effort from L.A. I also think the three days off benefits L.A., as it slows down Edmonton’s momentum in the series and gives L.A. extra time to prepare and adjust.
This is another really tough game to pick, but I’ll take the Kings to be the third team Saturday night to extend their series into a seventh game.
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