NHL Playoffs Same-Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Sunday (May 7)

We’ve got a three-pack of NHL action to finish up the weekend, so let’s dive in with my same-game parlay picks.

Sunday’s Best NHL Same Game Parlays

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Carolina Hurricanes (+115) at New Jersey Devils (-135) | Total 5.5

• • Leg 1: Devils -135
  • Leg 2: Under 5.5
  • Leg 3: Nico Hischier anytime goalscorer
  • Odds: +750

This spot screams Devils, as New Jersey will once again attempt to come back from a 2-0 series hole. But coming back against this Hurricanes team will be a much stiffer task, as Carolina thrives in dominating possession and creating the bulk of the chances. Carolina’s held possession at a 53% clip in this series and holds slight advantages in scoring chances and high-danger opportunities in the series.

I came into this series thinking Carolina’s lack of forward depth (primarily due to injury) and lack of finishing ability would be its downfall in this series. But through two games, Carolina is scoring on 17% of its scoring opportunities at 5-on-5. Part of that is due to rough goaltending, as Akira Schmid was yanked again Friday night. And it’ll be interesting to see who starts in net for the Devils Sunday afternoon.

As much as this pains me, I have to go back to the well with New Jersey. I’m expecting maximum effort back on home ice and perhaps a new goaltender between the pipes. I pronounced New Jersey dead after two games in their series against the Rangers, and look how that turned out. Maybe this is just a team that needs to settle into a series and make adjustments. Plus, I don’t think Carolina is going to score on 19% of its shots for the rest of the series. Schmid or Vitek Vanecek could doom us, but I’ll back New Jersey once more.

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Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) at Florida Panthers (-110) | Total 6.5

• • Leg 1: Maple Leafs -130
  • Leg 2: Over 6.5 goals
  • Leg 3: William Nylander +145 anytime goalscorer
  • Odds: +400

The Florida Panthers return home after impressively taking the first two games on the road. But a look at the Game 2 analytics suggests Florida was a bit fortunate to get out with a 3-2 win. Toronto hit five posts during the Game 2 loss, not to mention they won the expected goals battle by a slight margin at 5-on-5 and in all situations.

The difference was Sergei Bobrovsky, who was dazzling in the Game 2 win. Bobrovsky is earning his lofty contract after posting 2.12 goals saved above expected in the most recent win.

But the fact remains that Toronto was simply better that night and held Florida to just eight high-danger scoring chances the entire night.

Is there a chance that history repeats itself in Game 3? Absolutely. And trusting Ilya Samsonov in net is always a high-wire act. But I’ll roll with the Leafs in a must-win spot to play with more urgency, create more chances and actually convert this time.

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Dallas Stars (-145) at Seattle Kraken (+115) | Total 5.5

• • Leg 1: Under 5.5 goals
  • Leg 2: Roope Hintz anytime goalscorer
  • Leg 3: Daniel Sprong anytime goalscorer
  • Odds: +2500

Our finale takes us to Seattle, where Dallas will look to build off of a dominant Game 2 effort. During Dallas’ 4-2 win, the Stars controlled 55% of possession at 5-on-5 and held Seattle to just 11 scoring chances and four high-danger opportunities. In fact, Dallas quadrupled Seattle in high-danger chances, which is insanely impressive.

Both analytics sites NaturalStatTrick and MoneyPuck confirm this was a resounding victory for the Stars. The question is, how much should we read into that one-game sample size? It wouldn’t stun me if Seattle came out in Game 2 a little flat, knowing they had done their job in stealing one game on the road. And despite allowing four goals, Kraken netminder Philipp Grubauer still stopped 1.13 goals above expected.

Back on home ice, I suspect the Kraken will bring a much sharper effort in Game 3. However, I can’t get Dallas’ Game 2 metrics out of my mind. For that reason, I’ll stay away from a side in this SGP and instead go with the under. Both teams are shooting above 10% at 5-on-5, a number I expect to regress. Stars goalie Jake Oettinger hasn’t been stellar in this series, but I think we could get an elite performance in a pivotal road spot, much like what we saw against the Minnesota Wild in Game 4 of the previous series. I’ll also add some juicy goal scorers to give this parlay even more intrigue.

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