NHL Stanley Cup Final Player Prop Bet Picks: Sergei Bobrovsky, Adin Hill, Reilly Smith
It’s do-or-die time for the Florida Panthers as they head back to Vegas down 3-1 in the series. The books are heavily tilted toward the Golden Knights to finish this out, but Florida has come back before in these playoffs. For our purposes, the lines have definitely moved tighter now that we’re well into the series, but there is still some value on the board.
We have plenty of data to work with from these two teams, and our model has been profitable thus far in these playoffs, up 16.475 units through the first four games between these two. So let’s take a look at which props we’re targeting for Game 5.
2023 NHL Stanley Cup Finals: Game 5 Prop Bets
Odds courtesy of the following sportsbooks:
As a reminder, we are looking primarily at the props supported by our NHL player props page, which includes goals, assists, points, shots, blocks, and saves. Here is where I see the most value heading into the puck drop at 8 p.m. EST.
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Jonathan Marchessault Under 3.5 Shots | -150 | 0.75 | 0.5 | SH |
| Brandon Montour Over 1.5 Blocks | -140 | 0.7 | 0.5 | DK |
| Adin Hill Over 28.5 Saves | -125 | 1.25 | 1 | DK |
| Alex Pietrangelo Under 2.5 Blocks | -110 | 1.1 | 1 | DK |
| Sergei Bobrovsky Under 28.5 Saves | -108 | 1.08 | 1 | FD |
| Reilly Smith Over 0.5 Points | 100 | 1 | 1 | DK |
| Shea Theodore Over 0.5 Points | 106 | 1 | 1.06 | FD |
| Sam Bennett Under 0.5 Points | 106 | 1 | 1.06 | FD |
| Brayden McNabb Under 2.5 Blocks | 115 | 1 | 1.15 | DK |
| Gustav Forsling Under 1.5 Blocks | 115 | 1 | 1.15 | DK |
Florida Panthers Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| 1LW | Nick Cousins | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 1.10 | 0.44 | NA |
| 1C | Aleksander Barkov | 0.28 | 0.57 | 0.85 | 2.48 | 0.65 | NA |
| 1RW | Anthony Duclair | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.43 | 1.76 | 0.42 | NA |
| 2LW | Matthew Tkachuk | 0.35 | 0.62 | 0.97 | 3.32 | 0.36 | NA |
| 2C | Sam Bennett | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.48 | 2.58 | 0.53 | NA |
| 2RW | Carter Verhaeghe | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.60 | 2.81 | 0.36 | NA |
| 3LW | Sam Reinhart | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.58 | 2.27 | 0.56 | NA |
| 3C | Anton Lundell | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.35 | 1.71 | 0.41 | NA |
| 3RW | Ryan Lomberg | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 1.32 | 0.27 | NA |
| 4LW | Zac Dalpe | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.85 | 0.34 | NA |
| 4C | Eric Staal | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1.13 | 0.54 | NA |
| 4RW | Colin White | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.72 | 0.37 | NA |
| 1LD | Gustav Forsling | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 2.09 | 1.20 | NA |
| 1RD | Aaron Ekblad | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.37 | 2.46 | 1.03 | NA |
| 2LD | Brandon Montour | 0.12 | 0.51 | 0.63 | 2.49 | 1.08 | NA |
| 2RD | Marc Staal | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.56 | 1.40 | NA |
| 3LD | Radko Gudas | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 1.22 | 1.56 | NA |
| 3RD | Josh Mahura | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.75 | 0.76 | NA |
| Goalie | Sergei Bobrovsky | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 27.3 |
Vegas Golden Knights Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| 1LW | Jonathan Marchessault | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.62 | 2.91 | 0.22 | NA |
| 1C | Jack Eichel | 0.34 | 0.50 | 0.85 | 3.14 | 0.81 | NA |
| 1RW | Ivan Barbashev | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.54 | 1.44 | 0.54 | NA |
| 2LW | Mark Stone | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.79 | 2.45 | 0.52 | NA |
| 2C | Chandler Stephenson | 0.21 | 0.52 | 0.72 | 1.38 | 0.67 | NA |
| 2RW | Brett Howden | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.94 | 0.62 | NA |
| 3LW | Reilly Smith | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 2.16 | 0.40 | NA |
| 3C | William Karlsson | 0.20 | 0.41 | 0.61 | 1.84 | 0.59 | NA |
| 3RW | Michael Amadio | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.30 | 1.38 | 0.39 | NA |
| 4LW | William Carrier | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.30 | 1.88 | 0.36 | NA |
| 4C | Nicolas Roy | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.37 | 1.43 | 0.60 | NA |
| 4RW | Keegan Kolesar | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0.77 | 0.39 | NA |
| 1LD | Alec Martinez | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.93 | 3.08 | NA |
| 1RD | Alex Pietrangelo | 0.14 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 2.18 | 2.34 | NA |
| 2LD | Brayden McNabb | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 1.01 | 2.31 | NA |
| 2RD | Shea Theodore | 0.13 | 0.51 | 0.64 | 2.29 | 1.49 | NA |
| 3LD | Nicolas Hague | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 1.20 | 1.60 | NA |
| 3RD | Zach Whitecloud | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 1.05 | 1.63 | NA |
| Goalie | Adin Hill | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 29.1 |
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