NHL Stanley Cup Finals Player Prop Bet Picks: Game 1 (Panthers vs. Golden Knights)
We’ve reached the 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the Western Conference top-seed Vegas Golden Knights and the Eastern Conference 8-seed Florida Panthers. We have plenty of data to work with from these two teams, and our model has been profitable thus far in these playoffs. So let’s take a look at which props we’re targeting for Game 1.
2023 NHL Stanley Cup Finals: Game 1 Prop Bets
Odds courtesy of the following sportsbooks:
As a reminder, we are looking primarily at the props supported by our NHL player props page, which includes goals, assists, points, shots, blocks, and saves. The market is a little more wide open at the start of the series, so here is where I see the most value heading into the puck drop at 8 p.m. EST.
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Theodore 1+ Points | +116 | 1 | 1.16 | FD |
| William Carrier Over 1.5 Shots | +104 | 1 | 1.04 | FD |
| Sam Bennett Under 0.5 Points | +102 | 1 | 1.02 | FD |
| Aleksander Barkov Over 0.5 Assists | +102 | 1 | 1.02 | FD |
| Alex Pietrangelo Under 2.5 Blocks | -115 | 1.15 | 1 | MGM |
| Sergei Bobrovsky Under 29.5 Saves | -122 | 1.22 | 1 | FD |
| Brandon Montour Over 1.5 Blocks | -130 | 1.3 | 1 | DK |
| Jonathan Marchessault Under 3.5 Shots | -155 | 0.775 | 0.5 | DK |
Florida Panthers Player Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1LW | Carter Verhaeghe | 0.34 | 0.28 | 0.62 | 2.82 | 0.35 | NA |
| 1C | Aleksander Barkov | 0.28 | 0.58 | 0.86 | 2.50 | 0.63 | NA |
| 1RW | Anthony Duclair | 0.19 | 0.26 | 0.44 | 1.79 | 0.41 | NA |
| 2LW | Matthew Tkachuk | 0.36 | 0.63 | 0.99 | 3.36 | 0.35 | NA |
| 2C | Sam Bennett | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.49 | 2.58 | 0.51 | NA |
| 2RW | Nick Cousins | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 1.10 | 0.42 | NA |
| 3LW | Sam Reinhart | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.59 | 2.28 | 0.54 | NA |
| 3C | Anton Lundell | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.35 | 1.71 | 0.39 | NA |
| 3RW | Eetu Luostarinen | 0.11 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 1.31 | 0.55 | NA |
| 4LW | Ryan Lomberg | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 1.33 | 0.26 | NA |
| 4C | Eric Staal | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1.14 | 0.53 | NA |
| 4RW | Colin White | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.73 | 0.36 | NA |
| 1LD | Gustav Forsling | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 2.11 | 1.16 | NA |
| 1RD | Aaron Ekblad | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 2.48 | 1.00 | NA |
| 2LD | Brandon Montour | 0.12 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 2.50 | 1.05 | NA |
| 2RD | Marc Staal | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 1.35 | NA |
| 3LD | Radko Gudas | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1.25 | 1.53 | NA |
| 3RD | Josh Mahura | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.76 | 0.74 | NA |
| Goalie | Sergei Bobrovsky | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 27.1 |
Vegas Golden Knights Player Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1LW | Jonathan Marchessault | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.60 | 2.87 | 0.22 | NA |
| 1C | Jack Eichel | 0.33 | 0.48 | 0.81 | 3.10 | 0.83 | NA |
| 1RW | Ivan Barbashev | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.52 | 1.42 | 0.55 | NA |
| 2LW | Mark Stone | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.75 | 2.42 | 0.52 | NA |
| 2C | Chandler Stephenson | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 1.36 | 0.68 | NA |
| 2RW | Brett Howden | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.93 | 0.63 | NA |
| 3LW | Reilly Smith | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.57 | 2.14 | 0.41 | NA |
| 3C | William Karlsson | 0.19 | 0.39 | 0.58 | 1.82 | 0.60 | NA |
| 3RW | Michael Amadio | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 1.37 | 0.40 | NA |
| 4LW | William Carrier | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 1.87 | 0.37 | NA |
| 4C | Nicolas Roy | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.36 | 1.42 | 0.62 | NA |
| 4RW | Keegan Kolesar | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.77 | 0.40 | NA |
| 1LD | Alec Martinez | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 0.92 | 3.15 | NA |
| 1RD | Alex Pietrangelo | 0.13 | 0.48 | 0.62 | 2.15 | 2.39 | NA |
| 2LD | Brayden McNabb | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 1.00 | 2.36 | NA |
| 2RD | Shea Theodore | 0.13 | 0.49 | 0.61 | 2.26 | 1.52 | NA |
| 3LD | Nicolas Hague | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1.18 | 1.63 | NA |
| 3RD | Zach Whitecloud | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 1.03 | 1.66 | NA |
| Goalie | Adin Hill | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 29.6 |
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