Niko Price vs. Robbie Lawler: UFC 290 Prelims Odds & Picks
UFC 290 looks to be the premier event of the year. I do not know if the UFC can make this card more stacked and versatile. It is a perfect blend of veterans, contenders, and prospects, and it is topped with two amazing title fights. This card has the recipe to be an all-time great card. Let’s dive in!!
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport.
Prelims: UFC 290 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions
Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data.
Niko Price (-240) vs. Robbie Lawler (+200)
Niko Price
- Dist Acc Off: 41.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 17.29
- Dist Def: 49%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 198 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 19.6%
- Control % Def: 17.2%
Robbie Lawler
- Dist Acc Off: 54.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 13.81
- Dist Def: 55%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 192 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 5.2%
- Control % Def: 23.18%
This should be a fun fireworks-style fight. Niko Price rarely has a boring fight, and if this stays standing, Lawler should have the environment to do what he does best. Price has a higher activity rate, but it is actually lower than Lawler’s last two opponents, who combined for an average of 27.37 Dist Att/min. Price’s distance defense is concerning. Even though Lawler has slowed down later in his career, he still boasts stellar accuracy at distance.
Bet: Lawler (+200) and Lawler by KO/TKO (+400) are the plays. I see Lawler connecting with a big shot and just outclassing the reckless Price.
Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter.
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