Navigate

North Carolina State vs. Virginia: College Football Week 4 Odds & Picks (Friday)

by |

Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Friday’s game: North Carolina State vs. Virginia.

Top College Football Odds & Picks: North Carolina State vs. Virginia

It's getting late early for Virginia HC Tony Elliott, now 3-10 at UVA. My newest win projections have Virginia at 2.0 - a 2-10 season.

Elliott's offense ranks No. 129 in success rate and No. 133 in rushing success rate. The defense is no better, ranking No. 128 in success rate. Virginia has been blown out by both P5 opponents it has faced this season. And the Cavs lost 36-35 at home to the Sun Belt's James Madison.

North Carolina State's passing offense - which reunited QB Brennan Armstrong with former OC Robert Anae over the offseason - hasn't quite gotten off the ground yet. And to this point, NC State has one of the nation's least-explosive overall offenses (No. 131).

However, NC State's offense is already extremely efficient, a kill-you-with-paper-cuts operation. The Wolfpack rank No. 29 in offensive success rate and No. 16 in rushing success rate.

Typically, NC State can get itself into manageable third-down situations. They've excelled at converting, ranking No. 15 in third-and-long success rate and No. 1 in third-and-short success rate.

This number feels deflated because NC State hasn't yet covered a game this season. But it's difficult to see Virginia's defense forcing NC State's offense to punt. On the other side, Virginia's offense - which has been playing with its backup quarterback - aren't built to take advantage of the Pack's defensive weak-spot against the run.

The pick: North Carolina State (play to -10)

Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California?  Over 250 or Under 250 

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App