North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Miami Hurricanes Odds & Game Pick (2021)

NC State is amidst a charmed season, sitting atop the ACC Atlantic division undefeated with a victory over Clemson held as a crucial potential tiebreaker.  The program has not cleared nine wins since 2002, but coach Dave Doeren and QB Devin Leary come in riding high off a 33-7 win over Boston College.  Miami enters from the opposite end of the spectrum off back-to-back close losses to Virginia and North Carolina. This team is reeling with freshman QB Tyler Van Dyke forced into the lineup following the injury to senior QB D'Eriq King.  

With teams heading in the opposite direction compared to preseason expectations, how do betters play this matchup?

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Details

• Opening Line: NC State  -3, O/U 51.5
• Current Line: NC State  -3.5, O/U 52.5
• Last meeting: November 6, 2020, Miami 44, NC State 41

Overview 

Dave Doeren has succeeded in building a solid program that has won 8 games in three of the past four seasons.  But the program has lacked a defining win and a true breakthrough season.  They cleared the first checkmark with the win over Clemson and at 5-1 appear on the way to the conference championship-contending season.  QB Devin Leary has led an offense that ranks 39th in the nation in scoring and 42nd in passing.  Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr have combined a two-headed backfield on an offense that ranks 68th in rushing.  The offense has been more steady than spectacular but has enough playmakers, led by WR Emeka Emezie.

The team has made its mark on defense, with the sixth-best scoring defense in the nation. The rush defense has led the way, ranking 11th, and the unit compliments it with a pass defense that ranks 34th.  Like the offense, this side of the ball has been more solid than spectacular, only ranking 101st in sacks.  The team has taken the ball away well, with eight interceptions that rank 13th nationally.  No individual stands out; this unit functions well as a group.

Miami has been hammered with injuries so far this season.  As previously mentioned, King is out, and leading rusher Cam'ron Harris suffered a season-ending knee injury last week against North Carolina.  The team does get talented Jaylan Knighton from suspension, and he will take over for the 73rd rank rush offense.  The pass offense ranks highly, at 26th. However, much of that production has come with the team trailing to Michigan St and North Carolina and in a 69-0 win over Central Connecticut St. Turnovers have been a real issue; the team ranks 93rd in interceptions, leading to a 117th ranking in turnover margin.

Defensively the team has struggled, with the 93rd ranked scoring and equally bad pass and rush defenses leading to a 73rd overall ranking.  The team has failed to force turnovers, a leading contributor to their 117th ranking in the margin.  The silver lining is a stated focus on more aggressive schemes that led to four sacks against North Carolina to bolster the unit to 36th nationally.  But this unit is young and has disappointed through most of the season.

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Trends 

• NC St is 6-2 ATS over their last eight games
• Miami is 2-6 ATS over the same span
• Both teams are on streaks of OVER, NC St in 7 of 9 and Miami in 5 of 7

Bottom Line 

Given the directions of these teams, a three-point line feels like a potential trap.  Still, NC State has played very well defensively, and Van Dyke has struggled in his time at QB.  Add that element to an offense that should be able to control the ball and score on Miami's struggling defense.  The total trends towards going over, but this is a good spot for NC State to continue their run of success.

Pick: North Carolina St -3.5

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