North Texas vs. SMU : College Football Week 11 Odds & Picks

The 5-5 trend continues. Florida State was without Keon Coleman but I'm not sure that would have helped and the offense went to bed before the start of the Stanford-Washington State game. This week I'm in on James Madison impressing, a shootout after dark, and a covering trend!  Time to break the cycle! Here are my top picks of the week. Below we dive into North Texas vs. SMU .

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College Football Week 11 Picks & Predictions: North Texas vs. SMU 

Week 10 Record: 5-5 | 2023 Record:  50-50 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

North Texas vs. SMU 

The Mean Green aren't an exciting team as they sit 3-6 but they have covered the spread in 6 of their 9 games so far and SMU is dealing with a possible backup QB.  

North Texas has covered the spread in five straight games and they have done it with a great passing offense. The UNT passing game is their strength with QB Chandler Rogers sitting in the top 20 in passing yards and a 21/3 TD/INT rate. WR Jay Maclin is tied for tops in the nation in receiving touches and they balance the passing with a rushing attack that is t-36th in the country (180 YPG).

For all the offensive accolades the Mean Green offense has the defense is the polar opposite. Currently, UNT is dead last in rushing yards allowed, 129th in points allowed, and is above average against the pass at 47th. I feel it's likely the pass defense looking good statistically is probably because everyone knows they can run on UNT.  

Despite the defensive challenges for UNT they have still been able to stay in their games recently and as mentioned before SMU starting QB Preston Stone is in concussion protocol. If Preston Stone is not able to go I would assume the run game might take a step up but this is a pass-heavy offense.

Overall the Mustangs are probably still just better than UNT but the way the Mean Green have stayed in games and beat spreads recently gives me confidence in them. This game being on Friday night doesn't help for the odds of Preston Stone passing protocol. I think the Mean Green can keep it within 17 points even if Preston Stone plays so I'm going to take the points like the public is!

North Texas +16.5 (-110) @ SMU 

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