Notre Dame vs. Navy: Top College Football Week 0 Bets (2023)

College Football is back! Well, kind of. Week 0 still counts, especially for fans who have been deprived of football for months! Saturday resumes the football action that many have missed. Thor Nystrom will have you covered through the entire college football campaign. He provides all of his best bets for the week here. And below you can find his top pick for Notre Dame vs. Navy.

Best College Football Week 0 Bets: Notre Dame vs. Navy

• 2022: 109-84-4 ATS (56.5%)

Notre Dame vs. Navy (Ireland)

The NCAA changed the clock rules over the offseason to keep the clock running after first downs (outside of the last two minutes of each half). This will, according to estimates, burn an extra 3-5 minutes per game of clock that otherwise would have been stopped. Which, of course, will result in fewer plays being run, which could shave a few points per game off this year's average scoring output.

As sportsbooks adjust to this new normal, there could be value in betting unders early - particularly on matchups between teams who project to have extra clock run-off. Teams whose offensive output is skewed more heavily towards explosive plays and less towards efficiency won't see as big a difference under these new rules. Teams who methodically move the ball down the field will - the clock will keep ticking, even after first-down conversions.

Navy, still running the triple-option, fits the latter description as well as anyone. And Notre Dame, even with Sam Hartman, projects to be more efficient than explosive - one of the team's biggest question marks is its receivers. There are no such questions about ND's RBs or OL.

In addition, both of these teams run slow-tempo offenses - Notre Dame ranked No. 114 in tempo last year, Navy ranked No. 125. And they'll both be in their first games playing for new OCs. The Irish promoted Gerad Parker (the TE coach last year) to take Tommy Rees' old spot, while Navy is turning its offense over to Grant Chestnut (who will also coach the OL).

Chestnut, a disciple of Paul Johnson, comes from Kennesaw State. Chestnut melds spread-option concepts with Johnson's traditional flexbone looks - but, importantly, his offense still relies heavily on the flexbone. The problem with that is the NCAA's big rule change from last year that eliminated cut-blocking outside the tackle box, erasing the advantage the service academies had in running it.

It's part of the reason that Ken Niumatalolo was shown the door after last season - his offense had lost its teeth. It's the reason Army moved from the flexbone to a spread-option offense in the old Coastal Carolina-vain this offseason. And could it be part of the reason that Kennesaw went from 11-2 in 2021 to 5-6 last year?

I think Navy's offense is going to struggle again this season. But even when it's moving the ball, it will be leaning into the NCAA's new clock-churning rule - further shortening its games and suppressing offensive plays run on both sides.

Notre Dame's defense, meanwhile, returns eight starters. The two-deep is littered with experience, and the starting lineup is top-10 quality nationally. It's doubtful that Navy's offense, in Chestnut's debut, frustrates this group that had all offseason to prepare.

And on the other side, in Parker's first game as the Irish's OC, and Hartman's debut at Notre Dame, the Irish's offense figures to skew more conservative than we'll see come November. And if the Irish have a three-TD lead in the fourth quarter, you can bet the starters will get yanked and a deflate-the-ball strategy will be used to ice things away.

Note: In the 24 hours after I punched this bet into the BettingPros app - download it and follow me for bets as I make them - this total has dropped to 49. I would still play the under at that number.

The pick: ND-Navy UNDER 51.5

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