Notre Dame vs. Ohio State: College Football Week 4 Odds & Picks (2023)

Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s game: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State.

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Top College Football Odds & Picks: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State

In last year’s game, Notre Dame led 10-7 with 16 minutes to go. But the Irish gave up two touchdowns without returning fire from there to lose 21-10.

Last year’s Ohio State team was better than this year’s. And this year’s Notre Dame squad is tangibly more dangerous than last year’s.

Notre Dame’s offense was severely hampered last year by poor quarterback play. Current Alabama backup quarterback Tyler Buchner threw for 177 yards and no TD in last year’s game.

New Irish QB Sam Hartman has greatly improved the Irish passing attack, and by extension the offense overall. If you can believe it, SP+ actually ranks Notre Dame’s offense (No. 6) slightly higher than its vaunted defense (No. 7).

The Irish have surpassed 40 points in all four games, and rank top-8 in both offensive success rate and explosion. The Irish rank top-18 in these four key categories: run explosion, run success rate, pass explosion, and pass success rate.

The beauty of this year’s offense is that it is truly balanced, and thus can beat you in a variety of ways. RB Audric Estime has been outstanding behind one of the nation’s truly elite offensive lines, averaging 8.3 YPC with an average of 130 rushing YPG.

Notre Dame whipped the one top-50 opponent it has played, NC State, by three touchdowns.

This will be Ohio State’s first game against a real opponent. The two FBS opponents have played are Indiana (No. 79 in my PRs) and Western Kentucky (No. 88).

Over the small sample, last year’s issues running the ball appear to have carried over, with the Buckeyes ranking a middling No. 60 in run success rate and No. 69 in run explosiveness. Ohio State’s passing game has looked great, but that comes with a big caveat – it has faced three atrocious pass defenses. The Buckeyes haven’t yet faced a defense that ranks top-70 in either success rate or explosiveness against the pass.

That, of course, changes Saturday. The Irish deploy man coverage at a top-25 national rate, and they have the feisty secondary to do it. The Irish rank No. 2 in success rate against the pass. It has been much easier to attack Notre Dame’s run defense, but I’m anticipating that phase of the game to wash-out as a net draw because of OSU’s aforementioned middling ground game.

One area where Ohio State will have success is the deep passing game. Notre Dame ranks No. 80 in defensive passing explosion and No. 106 in 20-plus-yard completions allowed. OSU’s pass attack is No. 26 in explosiveness and No. 15 in 20-plus-yard completions.

But whereas I see a few Ohio State home run scoring passes coming on Saturday, I don’t know where the offense is being generated when the ball isn’t leaving the yard. I think the Buckeyes will punt more this weekend than the public expects.

And on the other side, Ohio State isn’t going to give Estime much, but it won’t be able to stop him from taking 3-4 yards each run. QB Sam Hartman should take care of the rest, taking aim at the weakness of Ohio State’s defense, a pass defense that ranks No. 43 in success rate.

We like the Irish to spring the upset, so we’ve also purchased a moneyline ticket.

The pick: Notre Dame +3 (play to pick ‘em)

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Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that’s it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it’s called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That’s it. The moneyline doesn’t use favorites or underdogs, it’s totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they’re weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don’t matter, they just need to win the game. But because it’s safer to take them straight-up without points, you’ll have to risk more when you make the bet — remember, they’re seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it’s a riskier bet — they’re seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog — +220 on the moneyline. You’d win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they’re also easy to understand. For major conferences, you’ll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It’s simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don’t vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California?  Over 250 or Under 250 

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they’re going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.

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