Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns Odds & Game Pick (2021)

The Texas Longhorns lost a shocker last week, blowing an 18-point lead to Oklahoma, and have now fallen to 4-2 on the season and 25 in the AP Poll. The gauntlet continues for Texas as they’ll now welcome 12 ranked Oklahoma State to DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium for another ranked matchup.

Oklahoma State had a bye week last week but have won five straight games with their previous two against ranked opponents. With wins against Boise State, Kansas State, and Baylor, Oklahoma State currently deserves a top 15 rank. However, Texas can compete against any team and is projected to win this game, at home, despite Oklahoma State being undefeated.

The AP poll ranks Oklahoma State higher than Texas while oddsmakers are backing Texas to win the game. So which system is going to be right?

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Details

• Opening Line: Texas -3.5, O/U 59.5
• Current Line: Texas -5.5, O/U 60.5
• Last meeting: October 31, 2020, Texas 41, Oklahoma State 34

Overview 

This Texas offense behind quarterback Casey Thompson is electric. So it’s not his fault Texas lost 55-48. Blame the defense. Ultimately though, Oklahoma was supposed to have the best defense in the Big 12, and Texas dropped 48 against them.

The Longhorns have scored 44.5 points per game and average 480 yards per game, with half of those yards on the ground and the other half in the air.

Thompson has thrown for 14 touchdowns and three interceptions, and he didn’t even start the season as the starting quarterback. These numbers are fantastic through six games, but these numbers are from four starts and a half for Thompson.

The pass protection needs to improve by the run game has done just fine behind those offensive linemen of Texas. Meanwhile, the defense needs work. Texas has allowed 439 yards per game and nearly 200 yards on the ground per game. The rushing defense has been terrible, and the tackling has been a bit off as well.

If Oklahoma State wants to win this ball game, they’ll need to get the run game going like they have all season. They’re averaging 159.2 yards per game and 25.4 points per game. Oklahoma State is built on defense, while Texas is built on offense. That’s why this game is so intriguing.

Against the Cowboys, teams are scoring 18.6 points per game and only averaging 305.2 yards per game. So if they hold Texas to numbers like that, it’s game over. But that’s going to be extremely hard.

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Trends 

• Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Over is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 7-1 in Longhorns’ last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Bottom Line 

Texas had the perfect game plan until Spencer Rattler exited the game for Oklahoma. Then things changed, and Oklahoma roared back, and Texas ended up losing that game last week.

The reality is that Oklahoma State’s offense can’t keep up with this Texas offense. The defense has been fantastic, but Texas has been a real challenge to stop for any defense since Thompson became quarterback.

The Cowboys aren’t built to stick around. They need defense. They won’t get defense against this Texas offense. If Oklahoma State stops the run, Texas can pass the ball. Either way, Texas will figure it out offensively like they’ve done all season, and Oklahoma State won’t be able to make the same big plays as Texas can, resulting in a touchdown or more defeat.

Pick: Texas -5.5 (-110)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.