Oklahoma vs. UCF: College Football Week 8 Odds & Picks

I thought we had the Colorado game wrapped up last week but the 2nd-half collapse was jaw-dropping and frustrating.  I like some teams coming off bye this week and I'm going to double-tap Florida State and against Auburn that paid off last week. Here are all of my best bets for the week. Below we dive into Oklahoma vs. UCF.

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College Football Week 8 Picks & Predictions: Oklahoma vs. UCF

Week 6 Record: 4-6 | 2023 Record: 34-36 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Oklahoma vs. UCF

The big difference here, in my opinion, is that while UCF's offense has been great (27th PG in scoring 34.7 PPG), they haven't faced a defense like the Sooners yet.   OU is allowing only 14 PPG (7th in the country) and they're well-rested from the bye week.  

There are 170 FBS QBs that have had 50 dropbacks and UCF QB Timmy McClain has the MOST time to throw (PFF) of any QB.  I doubt Ethan Downs and the rest of the Sooners’ line is going to give McClain that type of time to throw.  

UCF makes its living running the ball but Oklahoma has a top-30 statistical defense against the run and a Top 10 graded run Defense on PFF.  The 156 yards against Texas was the most rushing yards OU has given up this year.  UCF relies on the run game to make this offense operate and with the Sooners getting two weeks to prep I don't think it's going to work out for UCF like it has so far this season.  

Oklahoma is just slightly above average running the ball this season at 56th but with UCF at 122nd on the defensive side, they are going to run the ball down UCF's throat in this one.  UCF hasn't played anyone even close to Oklahoma in talent yet this season and after seeing Oklahoma prove it against Texas, I think this is a bigger mismatch than we are expecting.  Give me the Oklahoma by a lot in this one!

Bet: Oklahoma -18.5 (-110)

-Scott Bogman

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