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Ole Miss vs. Auburn: College Football Week 8 Odds & Picks (2023)

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Another solid weekend with our picks, and yet again, we missed out on a couple of bigger plays.

Michigan State controlled the entire game and, unfortunately, fell apart at the end against Rutgers. New Mexico State, Troy and Navy were never in doubt, while Auburn was never a sweat either because they got demolished. All things considered, a 5-3 record ATS is something we will take every single weekend.

We have eight College Football Week 8 games that present some value. Here are all of my picks. And below we dive into Ole Miss vs. Auburn.

College Football Week 8 Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks: Ole Miss vs. Auburn

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Record

  • ATS: 9-7 (+1.30 units)
  • Parlay: 0-2 (-3.00 units)
  • Teaser: 1-1 (-.10 units)
  • Overall: -1.80 units

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple:  We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

  • An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
  • A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite's plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
  • An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
  • A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here's a summary of the teams we are looking for:

  • Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
  • Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
  • Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
  • Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

  • Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
  • Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
  • Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
  • Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
  • Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
  • PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
  • Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
  • Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
  • RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)
  • EPA/Att: Expected Points Added per rushing attempt

Ole Miss vs. Auburn

Auburn

  • 9th in RROE on Standard Downs (+11.1%)
  • 58th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 6th in RROE on Passing Downs (+14.7%)
  • 95th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Ole Miss

  • 130th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 126th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 97th in Def Line Yards
  • 65th in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 46th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 67th in Def Standard Downs Rate
  • 60th in PFF Grade
  • 80th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 48th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

We are going back to the well again with this Auburn team. They have a clear identity, and that is what we are looking for in this series. Ole Miss has been a target previously, too. Arkansas played them to an extremely close loss and was able to limit their offensive possessions and shorten the game. Auburn will need to force enough Standard Downs to shorten this game and impose their will in the trenches. Auburn is better from an EPA/Rush Att standpoint than Arkansas was, and I believe they will make this a competitive game.

Bet: Auburn +6.5 (-110) & ML (+215)

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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