Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins Odds & Game Pick (2021)

The Oregon Ducks will look to continue to improve as they travel to the Rose Bowl to take on a 5-2 UCLA team that has won two straight games against bad Pac-12 opponents.

To be straightforward, the Pac-12 isn’t all that this season. They’ve got some teams that can knock off any team on any given Saturday and some teams that will continue to get embarrassed every single night. UCLA and Oregon are two teams that can beat any team on any Saturday.

Both teams average just about 34 points per game, and both teams allow just about 25 points or fewer per game. Although Oregon is a top-10 opponent, UCLA is the favorite at home.

This leads us to the one question we want to be answered on Saturday. Can Oregon prove that they’re a top 10 college football team, or will UCLA notch their sixth win of the season and assert their dominance in the Pac-12?

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Details

• Opening Line: UCLA +5, O/U 57.5
• Current Line: UCLA -2.5, O/U 59
• Last meeting: November 21, 2020, Oregon 38, UCLA 35

Overview 

The UCLA Bruins have shown serious growth this season, going 5-2 while notching off some impressive wins against the likes of LSU and Stanford. While UCLA took a loss against Arizona State at home a few weeks ago, they’re knocking off opponents they should be beating, including Arizona and Washington, on the road.

Now they’ll head back home and take on the most important team of the season. They get to face a Top 10 Oregon team as favorites.

UCLA is led by Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has thrown for 1,419 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s also thrown just two interceptions all year, which was a bit unexpected this season. Meanwhile, the running game for UCLA has been lights out thanks to former Michigan transfer Zach Charbonnet who has 697 yards rushing on 109 attempts this season.

The UCLA offensive line still needs lots of improvement, but the running game has still been elite for UCLA despite a lack of blocking by the offensive line. UCLA is averaging 220.1 yards rushing per game this season.

Defensively, UCLA has struggled in coverage but has been better upfront with their pass rush and rushing defense.

Meanwhile, Oregon is built the same way as UCLA, making this game extremely interesting. The Ducks, led by Anthony Brown, have averaged 33.8 points per game and are also rushing the football for over 200 yards with 210.3 yards per game.

Defensively, Oregon has allowed over 400 yards and have been terrible with plenty of missed tackles this year. The Ducks coverage unit has also been a disaster, allowing 270.5 yards per game.

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Trends 

• Bruins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 5-0 in Duck’s last 5 road games.
• Under is 4-0 in Ducks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

Bottom Line 

Both of these teams are evenly matched for the most part. Oregon and UCLA have dominated rushing the football, averaging over 200 yards each. Both teams have been awful in coverage on the defensive end and haven’t allowed plenty of yards on the defensive end.

The exciting part about Oregon is that they’re allowing 407.8 yards per game while only allowing 21 points per game. So if Oregon allows UCLA to average over 400 yards per game in this one, UCLA will score way more than 21 points.

So with that, I’ll take the UCLA run game to help out-gain the Oregon offense. It’s going to be a heckuva football game and a very close one at that.

Pick: UCLA Moneyline -130

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.