Oregon vs. Colorado: College Football Week 4 Odds & Picks (2023)
Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s game: Oregon vs. Colorado.
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Top College Football Odds & Picks: Oregon vs. Colorado
After backing Colorado each of the first three weeks - 2-1 ATS - we're on the other side this weekend.
Colorado is a great story. But the Buffs are one-handed on both sides of the ball. And, this week, they are going to be playing without WR/CB Travis Hunter, a big part of the reason for CU's respective strength in those areas.
The Buffalo passing attack is top-25 efficient overall, including No. 5 in completion percentage and No. 16 in interception percentage. CU gets the ball out into space and forces you to make one-one-one tackles. But the aerial attack is not explosive (No. 92), and it does not have the benefit of a scary rushing attack (No. 127 success rate) to keep opponents from cheating.
Defensively, Colorado takes away your deep passing game, forcing you to move the ball up the field methodically. But the Buffaloes' run defense is putrid, and you can nick them for quick-hitters in the passing game all day (No. 110 success rate). The latter issue was on full display against Colorado State, with CSU WR Tory Horton and company roasting the CU secondary.
Speaking of Colorado's secondary, it is really going to miss Travis Hunter in this game against a deep Oregon receiving corps. Especially with CB Cormani McClain and S Myles Slusher already sidelined.
Oregon's passing attack is an efficiency-monster that prefers beating you short repeatedly to taking its chances deep. This is the sort of offense that projects to torch Colorado - particularly in lieu of CU's secondary injuries.
Unfortunately for Colorado, Oregon's defense also matches up really well. Where you want to attack Oregon's defense is with your rushing attack - the Ducks' run defense ranks No. 91 in success rate and No. 125 in opportunity rate. But CU's offense isn't built to do that.
The Buffaloes will need to generate offense through its quick-hit passing game against an Oregon pass defense that ranks No. 19 in success rate, No. 6 in yards per dropback, and No. 16 in adjusted air yards per attempt.
Oregon is a man-coverage-heavy defense - No. 6 in man-coverage percentage nationally - that has proven effective in disrupting the timing of opponents in the short-pass game.
The narrative coming out of this Oregon blowout will be: Colorado ran out of steam after throwing everything it had into its first three games. Or: Colorado is fraudulent. But this is the truth: Oregon is a really, really bad matchup for Colorado.
The pick: Oregon -20.5 (play to -23.5)
Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners
Game Total
Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.
ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42
tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.
Moneyline
The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.
For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.
ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)
tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.
Player Props
Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.
ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California? Over 250 or Under 250
tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.
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