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Packers vs. Lions Picks & Player Prop Bets: NFL Week 14 Thursday Night Football

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As we enter the holiday season, the NFL playoff race is heating up, and Week 14 brings us a crucial NFC North showdown under the Thursday night lights! I'm Andrew Erickson, here to guide you through every angle of this prime-time clash between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions, in an NFC North shootout at the Coors Field of the NFL (Ford Field).

I'll be diving into expert insights on the spread, total, and standout player props for this pivotal showdown. Whether you're crafting the perfect same-game parlay or looking for top prop bets, I've got you covered for this high-stakes NFC North face-off.

Get ready for a game that's sure to thrill fans and bettors alike. So, grab your popcorn, settle in, and prepare to place your bets on this Thursday night showdown. This is just a taste of what's to come when the full BettingPros Week 14 Primer drops later this week!

NFL Week 14 Thursday Night Football

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Sides

  • The Lions have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Lions are 22-10 ATS as favorites.
  • They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 18-8 ATS over their last 26 games. When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
  • The Lions have won each of their last 10 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 13 of their last 17 games.
  • The Lions have won their last 13 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have won 12 of their last 14 home games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 15 of their last 16 games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in their last 10 home games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Packers.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in their last 13 road games following a home win.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 16 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 16-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 13-5 ATS. Green Bay is 4-9 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The Lions have a 27-point implied team total.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in the last eight of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Packers have won seven of their last eight games.
  • The Packers have won each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • Green Bay is 2-8 as a road favorite ATS (sub-25%) and 11-10 on the money line.

Totals:

  • Fourteen of the Lions' last 23 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions' last 25 home games has been 54 points; 72 percent (18/25) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Eight of the Lions' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Lions’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 19-12 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Twelve of the Packers’ last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers’ first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8, 3 in Week 9, 7 in Week 11, 17 in Week 12 and 23 in Week 13.
  • That’s 17 first-half points per game since Week 5, which would rank second in the NFL.
  • Nine of the Packers’ last 12 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Packers’ last 15 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Green Bay is 3-4 O/U this season at home, averaging 45 points per game.
  • The Lions' last three road games have gone under the total.

Overall:

This Thursday night, NFL bettors will be treated to a Week 9 rematch between the Lions and Packers. The Lions dominated the first matchup on the road 24-14, but Jordan Love was far from 100% health-wise playing in rainy, wet conditions. The spread was DET -2.5, and the bet was never in doubt after the Lions scored 24 points unanswered halfway through the third quarter. The game also went way under the total at 48 points.

Should we expect another under on Thursday night? Not a chance.

Last week, the Lions-Bears game was going to hit the over if Chicago just kicked the field goal at the end of the fourth quarter. The game goes into overtime at 46 points, and the next score cashes the over. Clearly, I'm not upset about it.

If anything, it gives me more confidence that this Thursday night game is a shootout. Eight of the Lions' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line. And nine of the Packers’ last 12 road games have gone OVER the total points line.

We know the Lions can score on anybody, so Green Bay’s offense will be the deciding factor. And taking a deep dive into the advanced stats, I don't exactly LOVE Jordan Love (pun intended) in this particular matchup.

The Packers quarterback hasn't been great against man coverage or against the blitz this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Lions have blitzed at the 2nd-highest rate (39.3%) in the NFL since losing Aidan Hutchinson in Week 6.

Their lowest blitz rate in a game over that time frame came in Week 9 against the Packers, but they were successful when blitzing. Jordan Love completed just 3 of 10 passes for 23 yards with an interception when he was blitzed, compared to averaging 8.6 yards per attempt when he wasn't blitzed. Love has struggled against the blitz this season, averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt (32nd in NFL). Against 4-or-fewer pass rushers, Love has averaged a league-high 9.4 YPA.

The Lions have used man coverage at the highest rate (47.4%) this season, specifically using Cover 1 on a league-high 41.3% of dropbacks.

Schematically speaking, Detroit’s defense is a tough spot for Love. But if he is blitzed at the same rate as the last matchup (26%), there will be plenty of dropbacks where he is just facing a normal pass rush.

It's why I like the over on Love's completion prop at 21.5. The Packers signal-caller hit 23 completions when he played Detroit earlier this season. The Lions' defense also ranks second in the NFL in completions allowed at home this season.

And this current Lions defense is far from the same unit that played back in Week 9. Injuries have taken a toll beyond Hutchinson.

Three defensive linemen will be out between Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring), Josh Paschal (knee), and DJ Reader (shoulder). DT Mekhi Wingo and LB Malcolm Rodriguez were already placed on IR a few weeks after the team put linebacker Alex Anzalone on IR.

We could see the Packers dominating the trenches on offense and defense. If the Lions are unable to tackle with all their injuries on defense, they could do some serious damage after the catch.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers accumulated season-highs in yards after contact per carry (6.1) and yards after the catch (188) against the Dolphins. Josh Jacobs has forced 77 missed tackles this season, trailing only Derrick Henry (78). Almost a third of those missed tackles have come over the last two weeks, as Jacobs has forced a league-high 25 missed tackles, averaging a missed tackle on every two touches (51.0%) per Next Gen Stats.

Also, it should be noted that the Lions will likely be without starting left tackle Taylor Decker. According to Next Gen Stats, backup tackle Dan Skipper has struggled in his two starts at left tackle this season, allowing 8+ pressures in each game. He has allowed 18 pressures on 78 pass-blocking snaps at left tackle, which would be the highest pressure rate allowed in the NFL (23.1%). Taylor has allowed nearly half the pressure rate (9.9%) at left tackle this season.

My best bet for this game is the over at 51.5 points. The average total in the Lions' last 25 home games has been 54 points; 72 percent (18/25) of the games have scored at least 51 points.

If this game shoots out, the best value, in my opinion, is in the Packers’ ML play. You could also ride the points in this game with a flurry of exploitable player props.

Props:

Jayden Reed has been quiet the last three games, but he went OVER 100 yards the last time he faced Detroit. The Lions are a bottom-three defense against slot WRs, so it's another great spot for him to produce.

In Week 13, Reed was the star of the Packers’ passing attack, catching three of his six targets for 24 yards and two touchdowns, all in the red zone. Reed accounted for a 21% target share (29% target rate per route run) and was the most effective player in scoring situations with four red-zone targets.

Reed has also scored the first touchdown in each of the Packers’ last three road games against NFC North opponents.

It's also no fluke that Reed will see more targets, given the projected increase of 3 WR sets, which Reed plays on from inside.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers used 11 personnel on a season-high 79.0% of plays in Week 9 against the Lions.

The Lions still matched the Packers with base on 14 of 49 plays against 11 personnel. The Lions have matched 11 personnel with base on 26.9% of plays this season, more than double any other defense and five times the NFL average (3.5%). The Packers have been one of the most productive offenses in the league out of 11 personnel this season, averaging 6.8 yards per play (2nd-most) and scoring a league-high 28 touchdowns.

Reed is an intriguing ladder bet option for Thursday night, given he has four games this season with 70-plus receiving yards and six with fewer than 30 yards.

Sam LaPorta surpassed 40 receiving yards in both games against the Packers in 2023.

And the Green Bay linebackers can't cover. The Packers linebacker unit allowed the most completions (17) and T-3rd-most yards (173) in any game this season in Week 13 against the Dolphins.

Isaiah McDuffie and Quay Walker struggled, each allowing seven receptions as the nearest defender. The Packers were noticeably missing Edgerrin Cooper in the contest, who has been targeted at the lowest rate among Packers linebackers this season (9.7%). Cooper has allowed just six receptions on 11 targets this season for 74 yards. The Lions completed 9 of 10 passes for 78 yards against the Packers with a linebacker as the nearest defender in Week 9.

Take the OVER 37.5 receiving yards for LaPorta on Thursday night. The last four TEs the Packers have faced have gone for 36-plus receiving yards.

Josh Jacobs recorded season-highs in rushing yards over expected (+52) and yards before contact per carry (3.5) against the Lions in Week 9. Jacobs recorded a 23.1% explosive run rate in Week 9, his 2nd-highest this season, but his 2nd-slowest speed at the line of scrimmage (7.98 mph).

The Packers RB totaled 13 carries for 95 yards, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and breaking off a long run of 37 yards.

Given how quickly the Packers’ offense has been, I like the value of Jacobs' first TD at +550.

Christian Watson is the Packers' main man coverage beater. The last time these teams played, Watson hauled in three of seven targets for 37 yards, with a 12.3-yard average and a long catch of 19 yards. He had one red-zone target (didn't score) but converted a two-point conversion.

But Watson's underlying usage was strong: 145 air yards, 38.98% air yards share, and 19% target share.

As noted in this week's fantasy football forecast ahead of Week 14, Watson caught two of his four targets for 67 yards, including a long reception of 46 yards. In the last five games, Watson leads the Packers in targets (24), air yards (504), and receiving yards (293) - even after a doughnut in Week 12.

In this same building last season, the Packers' first play from scrimmage was a 53-yard bomb to Watson. His first TD odds are at +1700.

Tim Patrick was my favorite longer-shot TD bet on the Thanksgiving slate, but we didn't cash it. LaPorta bogged the red zone TDs. However, Patrick still caught two of his three targets for 48 yards, with one of his targets coming in the end zone but failing to score.

Patrick maintains strong usage as the Lions’ No. 3 WR after Kalif Raymond was placed on IR.

In a high-scoring game, I want to return to his TD props. His normal receiving props also seem like a solid bet. He has over 20.5 receiving in three straight games.

In nine games this season, both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have scored a TD. Parlay their anytime TD odds together to get close to a 2-to-1 payout.

My Picks:

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